Tag: Sweden Fixed Matches

Sweden Fixed Matches

Sweden Fixed Matches

Football Sweden betting fixed matches

Daily Tips Fixed Matches 1×2

Daily Tips Fixed Matches 1×2

Daily Tips Fixed Matches 1×2

Ticket Multi-Bets Big Odds fixed Matches
Day: Thursday    Date: 15.09.2022

League: EUROPE Europa League – Group Stage
Match: AS Roma – HJK
Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.50    Result: 3:0 Won

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When recreational sportsbooks offer you risk-free bets fixed matches, how do you best profit from them? Should you simply maximise your expected value? Read on to find Daily Tips Fixed Matches 1×2 out.

Many recreational sportsbooks offer new customer promotions that work like this: they offer you a “risk-free” bet of some large amount, such as $500, but in the fine print they tell you that the way they free you from risk is by issuing you a “free bet fixed matches” equal to the amount you staked if your initial bet loses.

If you get the free bet, then you’re entitle to the winnings if you win, but they don’t give you back the face value of the free bet fixed matches. They keep that part. So much for being truly “risk-free.” Still, your risk is greatly reduce, and they really are giving away free money. The trick is to figure out how to get the most free money out of the 1/2 TIPS DOUBLE FIX MATCHES deal.

Maximising Expected Value: Is it worth the risk?

You may be tempt to think that the best way to maximise your free money is to maximise your expect value (EV). I mean, isn’t the definition of EV “the value of a gamble weight over the probability of each possible outcome”? The strategy that maximises your EV is to bet on a longshot that will lose most of the time since if you win your initial bet, you get no value from the promotion.

Sweden Fixed Matches

Your EV may be the high when you bet on extreme longshots (to have the great chance of getting the promotional free bet), but it comes at a cost. You’ll have to withstand a much larger risk to get it. For example, if you bet $500 on a longshot at odds of 4.600, then you’ll typically win about 20% of the time, but you get that big free bet if you don’t. If you place the free bet on a similar line, then you still have a chance to net $1,300.

This same strategy will roughly maximise the EV of your free bet fixed matches because even if you win you don’t get your principal back and only get to keep the winnings. But just like with the DAILY TIPS FIXED MATCHES 1×2, you your risk of losing is eliminated and your profits are guaranteed.

So maybe your best play is to bet on a big favourite, since you’re much more likely to win some money that way, even if it’s not as much. If you’re just starting out and your bankroll is pretty small, say $1,000, then this may seem like the right strategy to make sure you’ll only lose half of your hard-earned bankroll a very small percentage of the time. For example, if you bet on the favourite at Daily Tips Fixed Matches 1×2 of 1.500, then you will win $250 on your $500 risk-free bet about 63% of the time.

Chelsea Bet Best Fixed Matches 1×2

If you lose and get the free bet winning fixed matches tips, then you have another 63% chance to win half your money back on another bet at odds of 1.500. You only lose your initial $500 about one time in eight. But, since the real value in these promotions comes from getting the free bet when you lose, you’re passing up a lot of value with Daily Tips Fixed Matches 1×2 that strategy.

Optimal Hedging: The Ideal Strategy

Is there any strategy that can meet in the middle between getting the most Daily Tips Fixed Matches 1×2 and enduring the least risk? Yes, there is, and it’s call optimal hedging. Hedging, of course, means betting on both sides of a market in order to partly or fully lock in a certain return. Usually, that comes at a cost in the form of the margin you have to pay when betting on odds fixed matches that should be longer (if they truly reflected the chance of your side winning).

If Team A goes off at 4.600 to win, and the sportsbook applies a typical five per cent margin, then the odds on Team B would be about 1.204. The fair line would be somewhere in the middle (you can more accurately estimate it if you use my method shown in this article on the Favourite-Longshot Bias), so if you hedge at 1.204 you’re definitely not going to maximise the EV. If you make your hedge at a sharp sportsbook like FixedMatch.Bet, they could offer a price of 1.238 instead because of their lower margin. Even then, you have to give back a little of the EV that you gain by playing it straight.

Accurate fixed Matches

Below is a table of how much you can win or lose with each of our three different strategies, along with the percentage of the time you’ll win your initial bet, lose it and then win your free bet, or end up losing both of them. The last column shows the average amount of money you’ll win, which is your MANIPULATED BETTING FIXED MATCHES. Clearly, betting on the 1.500 favourites both times returns the worst EV (a paltry $34 on average), but it will have much less variance than betting on longshots.

Daily Tips Fixed Matches 1x2

You get the most EV ($271) by betting on the longshots without hedging, but you only give up about $45 in value by hedging – and only $17 if you make your hedge on FixedMatch.Bet. How would you even go about that? You’d put your remaining $500 into FixedMatch.Bet and bet it on Team B, and then if Team B wins, you’d use that whole payout to hedge against another 4.600 underdog when you use your free bet 1×2 fixed games. That way, even though you lose money 63% of the time, you only lose $233 instead of $500 if you can get a line as good as FixedMatch.Bet. Does that really make a big difference? If you only have $1,000 to start out, then the difference is 1/2 TIPS DOUBLE FIX MATCHES actually huge.

Testing risk-free betting strategies

How can we tell which strategy will produce the biggest median bankroll in the long run? Well, if the sportsbooks would let us hit the same promotion over and over again instead of just once, then we could bet with each strategy many times (or run a Monte Carlo simulation of bets) and see which produces the biggest profit.

Hot fixed matches

So, I ran a simulation just like that but with one difference. Since the initial bet represents half of your bankroll, all you’d have to do is lose that much for each of the first two trials and you’d be broke. And I’m sure none of you would be foolish enough to do that. But, if we change the rules of the promotion to be that you can bet 50% of your current bankroll, regardless of how big or small it is, then you never really go broke and can always make a comeback if a certain strategy really is the best.

I ran the simulation many times, and here’s a graph of one of the runs for the first 100 trials. The Y-axis is show on a logarithmic scale, meaning each line is 10 times higher than the one below it, because otherwise, you’d never see the lines for the 1.500/1.500 and 4.600/4.600 strategies. By betting on the favourites each time, you’d turn your $1,000 bankroll into about $4,000 and never dip into the loss column. Not bad! But this run is lucky for those employing that strategy because in truth, the benefit of each bet is so small that it has -EG.

By betting on the longshots without hedging, your bankroll bounces around like a Daily Tips Fixed Matches 1×2 during a Steph Curry dribbling drill and you end up with less than $10. Or if you’re a PSG fan, you can benefit from our PSG fixed matches. Over-betting your huge edge has caused you to go practically broke.

Betting hot fixed tips 1×2

You could simply bet less in this situation to reduce your risk of ruin, but that will ruin your EV since you only get that theoretical $271 if you bet $500 upfront. On the other hand, with the exact same outcomes for each game, if you give up a little EV each time by hedging on FixedMatch.Bet, then you lose much less during each downswing and end up making a tidy profit by the end. And by tidy, I mean over $100 million.

With a bankroll of $10,000, fixed odds winning tips betting on the 4.600 lines both times without hedging will get you essentially the maximum amount of EG that you can from this position (i.e., 2.25% of your entire bankroll). This makes a lot of sense if you think about it the right way. That’s because, with a bankroll that large, you’re only betting 5% of it in a position with a huge mathematical edge. In that case, the risk to your riches is small enough to take full advantage of the greater +EV you can get without hedging.

Hot Fixed Matches Sportal Tips 1×2

Still, if you can get a price of 1.238 on FixedMatch.Bet for your hedge, then you can get the same EG as you get without hedging by using the following strategy. Stake $1,575 on the favourite at FixedMatch.Bet, and if that bet wins (meaning you’re awarde a $500 free bet from the other site), then stake $1,450 as a hedge at odds of 1.238 against your free bets win tips 1×2.

With FixedMatch.Bet high limits and policy of welcoming all bettors, you should have no trouble getting those bets down in most 1/2 TIPS DOUBLE FIX MATCHES. With this play, it works out that you’ll profit about $225 (or 2.25% of your bankroll) however the games turn out, allowing you to realise all that EV with no sweat. When your bankroll is this size, then the best play is truly up to your personal preference.