Smart Bets Fixed Matches
Smart Bets Fixed Matches
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Day: Thursday  Date: 11.08.2022
League: EUROPE Europa Conference League – Qualification
Match: Anderlecht (Bel) – Paide (Est)
Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.50Â Â Result: 3:0 Won
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SMART BETS FIXED MATCHES is the strategies and approaches people take to try an achieve success in betting. While some of these can be complex and difficult to implement, there are many simple concepts that anyone can apply. Read on to find out the power of using âif-thenâ when placing a bet.
A common smart bets fixed matches
Sports betting is incredibly personal and the use of the pronoun âIâ tends to dominate the majority of the conversation.
Think about it.
Watch almost any handicapping video, listen to any fixed games soccer betting podcast or read any write-up and there will be an abundance of the following
During the game in-play, the most common phrases heard from bettors are, âI need.â âI hope.â
After the result is determined, nine times out of ten – win or lose – one of the following is said, âI knew.â
The personal connection to a bet stems from a human desire to control the future. Bettors often use the word âIâ to believe that it was their own doing which determined the outcome of the bet, rather than luck.
No bettor wants to admit to being lucky, but every bettor wants to get recognition as being smarter than other bettors – especially when it comes to sports betting.
I would be lying if I did not admit to being guilty of using any of the terms above. However, it is the fact that so many others will agree with this article that confirms my belief that there is a clear edge in Smart Bets Fixed Matches simple by changing one’s mindset to remove personal bias.
What is the âif-thenâ approach?
The easiest way to remove yourself from a smart bets fixed matches is to use the âif-thenâ thought process when handicapping games.
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Omitting the personal pronoun âIâ and replacing it with âif-thenâ is the easiest way for a bettor to shift a losing mindset, into a winning one. The use of “I” encourages a bettor to believe their explanation for a handicap fixed matches bets without any validation or comparison.
“I think that the New England Patriots will win the Smart Bets Fixed Matches because Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots organisation are more experienced than Jared Goff, Sean McVay and the Rams.”
The use of “I” leverages the credibility of the speaker over the substance of the handicap single bet fixed match Asia. The validity of the handicap becomes dependant on the level of respect those listening have for the speaker.
An “if-then” approach?
It would immediately invalidate the handicap betting odds football tips 1×2 above. The power of “if-then” is the forced evaluation of both sides. Handicapping both sides of a bet is something that all professional bettors do exceptionally well because making a case for the upside and the downside allows for accurate Smart Bets Fixed Matches. A valid handicap using an “if-then” may look something like this,
âIf the Los Angeles Rams can generate pressure on Tom Brady in the pocket, then the New England offence will have a difficult time keeping up to their season average due to Bradyâs passing numbers against pressure.â
The upside of the handicap is that the Rams generate pressure. This supporting statement is the “if-yes”. However, with this mindset, there is always an “if-no” side of the equation which must be addressed to complete the handicap. The downside of the handicap is that the Rams can not generate pressure.
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âIf the New England Patriots offensive line can negate the pass rush of Los Angeles, then a Rams secondary which has underperformed league average will need to play well above expectation to contain skilled New England receivers.â
From a simple thought of the Los Angeles Rams getting Smart Bets Fixed Matches. The “if-then” handicapping style introduced three other points of analysis in which to assess risk. By carrying out the process for other critical matchups in the game. A bettor can build a concise list of pros and cons to weigh against market pricing to determine a wager.
Changing “I” for “if-then” requires a lot of dedication and extra work. However, the time spent researching answers to acknowledge the upside and downside of “if-then” handicapping will reduce the rate of forced wagers and encourage sharper risk assessment.
Smart bets Fixed Matches and Best Odds
In essence the margin – also known as a betting over-round or Smart Bets Fixed Matches – is the additional amount over 100% that the odds on all equally exclusive outcomes of an event imply.
Let’s use a fair die toss as an example. Each outcome (number) has the same probability (1/6) of occurring. Therefore for example, every ÂŁ1 bet placed on rolling a â3â should return ÂŁ6 (including your ÂŁ1 stake).
The decimal odds for this example is 1/probability = 1/(1/6) = 6.00 while its equivalent moneyline odds are +500.
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However, a betting fixed ht-ft matches big odds company needs to make a profit and therefore would offer odds of 5 rather than 6, which doesnât fairly reflect the implied probability. Over six die tosses, your number is expect to come up once. Therefore if you staked ÂŁ6 but received ÂŁ5, the bookmaker makes ÂŁ1 in profit.
It is however, important to note that in reality streaks are possible (read the law of large numbers).
In this case, the implied probability per outcome is 20% (1/5). However if you calculate all six outcomes, the sum of probabilities would be 120% (6 outcomes x 20% per outcome). The difference between the 100% and this sum of probabilities is the margin. In this case it is 20%, in favour of the bookmaker. Click here to learn how to calculate a betting margin.
So how do margins affect your betting?
Essentially, the higher the bookmaker’s margin is, the bigger impact it will have on your sports betting profitability.
In the example given above, at odds of 5.00.The bettor must make correct guesses of the outcome 20% of the time. Out of 100 guesses, the bettor would need to make 20 correct guesses to break-even.
Therefore for a bookmaker margin of 20%.Tthe bettor would need to correctly predict three extra rolls of the die – as the bettor needs to make 17 correct guesses (1/6 of 100) if there is no margin.
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Letâs now examine the break-even point with different margins to highlight how this impacts your sports betting profitability. We used four examples – a coin toss, a roll of the die. An event that has a 90% chance of occurring. And an unlikely event that has a 10% chance – with each test over 100 simulations.
For a coin-toss, the fair odds would be 2.00 on any outcome. In this case bettors would need to make 50 correct guesses to break-even. However, if the margin was 5%, then the odds provided would be 1.904.
In this case, 53 guesses from 100 are need to break-even. As can be prove mathematically, the graphs bellow all indicate a similar trend, the higher the bookmaker margin, the more correct bets a bettor must make.
What have we learnt?
All strategic long-term bettors seek to maximise their returns by obtaining the highest odds fixed matches betting possible. The higher the margin, the lower the odds are, and to compensate, an increase in correct guesses by the bettor to obtain break-even is need.
Essentially this increase is a rounding up of the margin multiplied by the break-even if the margin was zero. For example in a coin toss, the break-even, if the margin was zero, is fifty guesses. When a margin of 3% is applied, the increase is 3% of 50, which is 1.5, but this is rounded up to 2.
Therefore 52 guesses would be required if the margin was 3%. Markets on popular sports are offered as low as 2% at FixedMatch.Bet, compared to an industry average of 5% – clearly resulting in more value.
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Fixed odds Football Bets Matches
This article identifies how crucial margins are to sports betting profitability. The bigger the margin, the more accurate your fixed odds football bets must be to win in the long run. Bettors choose FixedMatch.Bet because the low margins they offer provide a greater chance of sustainable success compared to our competitors.
Dominic Cortis is a lecturer with the Department of Mathematics at The University of Leicester; and an assistant lecturer at The University of Malta. He is an associate actuary and his research focuses on sports analytics as well as financial and betting derivatives
What Does Smart Bets Fixed Matches Mean?
A moneyline bet – also written as âmoneylineâ or âMLâ – is placed on an outcome of one event. In most cases, there are only two outcomes: Team (or Player) A wins or Team (or Player) B wins. In sports with occasional or frequent ties, including soccer betting fixed matches, a tie (or draw fixed matches predictions) is also offered.
Without a point spread in moneyline betting, the margin of victory is irrelevant. In point-spread betting, the Dallas Cowboys, for example, might defeat the Philadelphia Eagles by four points but because the Cowboys were 6-point favorites, the Cowboysâ spread wouldâve lost.
How to Read the Moneyline
There are three parts in moneyline betting:
Favorite: Which team or player is favored to win? If one side has minus odds, they are the favorite. For example, if the Los Angeles Lakers are -180 in moneyline odds vs. the Boston Celtics, they are the favorite.
Underdog: Which team or player is favored to lose? If one side has plus odds, they are the underdog. In the case of the Lakers-Celtics game, the Lakers are the moneyline favorite at -180, while the Celtics are the underdog at +130.
