# HT FT Fixed Matches Single Double Bets

HT FT Fixed Matches Single Double Bets

## HT FT Fixed Matches Single Double Bets

Betting halftime/fulltime Fixed Matches
Day: Wednesday    Date: 14.09.2022

League: EUROPE Champions League – Group Stage
Match: Manchester City – Dortmund
Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.50    Result: 2:1 Won

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To be profitable in sports betting, staking HT FT Fixed Matches Single Double Bets strategy is as important as finding value odds. With many progressive staking systems, such as the Labouchere system, promising almost infinite wealth, are they a good idea to follow? Here’s the academic answer to the question.

The Labouchère staking system is a progressive staking method acording to which a bettor continues to bet until a particular winning fixed matches sure win bets amount is reached, and is traditionally used for Roulette.

The 1×2 SINGLE/DOUBLE FIXED MATCHES in betting

Labouchère can be easily extended to sports betting and the steps involved in applying this HT FT Fixed Matches Single Double Bets are the following:

Decide how much money you want to win. Let’s aim, for example, to win \$100.

Determine how you will split this money. Say you split it up over five values: \$10, \$20, \$40, \$20, \$10.

Place a bet that would win the sum of the first and last numbers. If the European/Decimal oddis 3 (+200 American/MoneyLine) for example, you would stake \$10, so as to win \$20 back (the sum of the first and last number).

If you win, you tick off the first and last number. Otherwise, you add the amount of the stake you made, so that you need to win this back. In this case, you would have \$10, \$20, \$40, \$20, \$10 and \$10.

Repeat steps 3 and 4 until you win the amount you are aiming for.

The rationale behind this strategy is that you tick two items off the list when you win, but you only add one; so you are ticking it faster than you are adding. Below I discuss why this doesn’t make sense.

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To recommend or not to recommend?

While it is fun to deal with, I would not recommend any progressive staking methods. In essence, they suggest you bet and bet until you win the desired amount, without heeding the amount you afford to HT FT Fixed Matches Single Double Bets. Let ‘s assume you are betting on even odds and have a run of four losses. The next bet would then be \$50, even if you had already lost \$100.

Unlike the Kelly Betting strategy, no consideration is taken to the size of the portfolio.

It is important to remember that the key decision in sports betting should be whether the odds represent value, rather than how much can be won.

A similar progressive system is the Fibonacci strategy, where you increase your betting stake fixed matches according to the Fibonacci sequence 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21 etc.

The academic 1×2 SINGLE/DOUBLE FIXED MATCHES

From an academic perspective, there have been three good papers discussing the use of this strategy to bet on draws. In 2007, Archontakis and Osborne stated that betting on draws at an odd of 3 using a Fibonacci Strategy would result in wins, if applied to World Cup Finals data.

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Yet they didn’t use real data, so another team of researchers focused on real odds for draws and simulated the results (Is the soccer betting market efficient? A cross-country investigation using the MANIPULATED FIXED MATCHES AVAILABLE). They found that in 95% of the cases, the worst case scenario is to have to stake up to 43, if the Fibonacci strategy is used.

More recently, however, Lahvička debunked the theory of succes behind these methods by finding that all tested versions of this strategy eventually result in money loss. I would expect any progressive system to provide similar results.

So, tread on with caution. Progressive systems are fun, but only while the fun lasts.

Bettors should always look for a mathematical edge rather than rely on their impulses. Learning how to use the Kelly Criterion, for example, is a great way for bettors to determine how much they should stake. Read on to find out.

Prior to placing a bet bettors should consider six important questions: who, what, when, where, why and how? But for this article, it is the how, as in how much to bet, we are interested in.

Consider placing a bet on the English Premier League Fixed Matches. We can adapt these questions accordingly:

• Who to bet on? Manchester United
• What to bet on? Top 4 finish
• When to bet on? Now
• Where to bet on? FixedMatch.Bet tend to offer the best odds
• Why to bet on? They seem to be under-priced
• How much? How much to bet on this outcome?

Most articles focus on the first five questions, typically using mathematical or HT FT Fixed Matches Single Double Bets on answering ‘why’ – such as the article on how to use Monte Carlo methods.

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In making financial decisions, the key issue is not only finding the adequate financial products to invest in but also deciding how to subdivide one’s portfolio. Similarly, an important question for a bettor, is how much to wager?

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Many papers recommend using the Kelly Criterion or a derivative of it – such as the 2013 paper appearing in the The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics. In essence, the Kelly Criterion calculates the proportion of your own funds to bet on an outcome whose odds are higher than expected, so that your own funds grow exponentially.

The Kelly Criterion formula is:

(BP – Q) / B

B = the Decimal odds -1

P = the probability of success

Q = the probability of failure (i.e. 1-p)

Using a coin as an example of 1×2 SINGLE/DOUBLE FIXED MATCHES

For example, consider you are betting on a coin to land on heads at 2.00. However, the coin is biased and has a 52% chance of ending up on heads.

In this case:

P= 0.52

Q = 1-0.52 = 0.48

B = 2-1 = 1.

This works out at: (0.52×1 – 0.48) / 1 = 0.04

Therefore the Kelly Criterion would recommend you bet 4%. A positive percentage implies an edge in favour of your bankroll, so your funds grow exponentially. You can also test the criterion for different values in this online sheet by using the code below.

Ultimately the Kelly Criterion offers a distinct advantage over other staking methods such as Fibonacci and Arbitrage methods as there is a lower risk. However, it does require precise calculation of the likelihood of an event outcome, and discipline of this method will not provide explosive growth of your bankroll.

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Do odds represent true probabilities of an event? A leisurely stroll in the library and the discovery of a highly cited academic book is what put Dominic Cortis on the quest to discover why odds deviate from actual results. Read on to find out what bettors can learn from behavioural economics.

A few weeks ago while strolling in the library, I noticed the book ‘Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioural Economics’ by Richard H. Thaler, a highly cited academic in the area and had to pick it up for a summer reading. The main idea of the book is to disprove traditional economics’ assumption that markets are shaped by rational forces. This is how I started investigating this brave new world of behavioural economics. In this article, I explain how this idea applies to betting.

The efficient market hypothesis

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) has been a staple belief within the economic world for ages. In simple terms, EMH implies that the prices of all items in financial markets are correct. That is neither under-price nor over-price.

From a betting scenario, EMH would imply that odds represent the true probability of an outcome – adjusted to the bookmaker’s margin. If EMH was true, then no one can make long-term profits through fixed odds winning football betting and trading; or rather any long-term profits are a result of luck rather than skill.

Yet, it is a hypothesis that has been proven to be incorrect in many cases. For example, throughout the Premier League fixed matches winning tips battle this year, I argued many times that the price on Leicester was simply not right.

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What do the odds represent?

Consider that even if a bookmaker is aware of the true probability of an outcome, they would be very unlikely to price it completely different from the market, as they would be risking being in a position to offer arbitrage in the market and/or being uncompetitive.

Conventional wisdom implies that if there are more traders in a HT FT Fixed Matches Single Double Bets, then prices should be closer to the true estimate. On the other hand, more traders might mean more noise.

In the betting world, the true value of an outcome is dependent on the outcome itself. So if we were to ask “Are odds at evens true?”, a simple analysis would be to take all past odds at evens and see whether these occurred half of the time. In the financial world, assigning the true value of an asset is slightly harder which is why betting markets are used as a microcosm of financial markets in academic research.

Pricing betting outcomes

Pricing is mostly about HT FT Fixed Matches Single Double Bets what others will think the correct price is. A brilliant way to look at it is a competition in which individuals try to guess what two thirds of the average of all guesses will be.

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FixedMatch.Bet had run a version of this guessing game and the winning outcome was 20. It seems that the winner was a level two thinker as per Thaler’s explanation who had also run this experiment for the Financial Times.

If all numbers have to be between 0 to 100 at random, then the average would be 50, two thirds of which is 33 (as a level one thinker would reason). Yet, if everyone does this, the correct number would be two thirds of this, which is 22 as a level two thinker would realize.

Should we continue at this rate ‘ad infinitum’, the Nash Equilibrium (google ‘A Beautiful Mind’) is zero. Quoting the book “If and only if all participants guessed zero would no one want to change his or her guesses”. For your info, when Thaler had run the competition for the Financial Times – the winning number was 13.

Updated: September 15, 2022 — 5:47 am