# Weekend Fixed Matches Big Odds

Weekend Fixed Matches Big Odds

## Weekend Fixed Matches Big Odds

Soccer real fixed match 30 odds
Day: Monday    Date: 05.09.2022

League: FINLAND Veikkausliiga
Match: HJK – HIFK
Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.50    Result: 2:1 Won

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### Real Fixed Match Today

There are countless betting strategies that seem to provide a legitimate means of beating the market and turning a consistent profit. Middling is one such strategy, but does it actually work? Read on to find Weekend Fixed Matches Big Odds out.

Middling is a betting strategy that aims to exploit differential pricing between bookmakers or future line movements. It could be considered the Fixed Odds 1×2 betting market equivalent of statistical arbitrage, a trading strategy employed in financial markets. This article explains what middling is, and how you can profit from implementing this simple strategy.

How does WEEKEND FIXED MATCHES SURE BETTING?

We can use a practical example to understand how middling works. Consider a Weekend Fixed Matches Big Odds. Bookmaker A is quoting a game total of 204.5 and bookmaker B’s total is 200.5. To generate a middle, a bettor would bet ‘under 204.5’ at bookmaker A and ‘over 200.5’ at bookmaker B. A middle is created for totals of 201, 202, 203 and 204. If the total lands on any of these numbers, the bettor will win both bets. Notice that it’s impossible for the bettor to lose both bets. The worst case is losing one, and winning the other. Manipulated football betting fixed matches is the way to go for people serious about betting.

A middle can be generated on any line bet, be it a Handicap or Total. Determining if a Weekend Fixed Matches Big Odds middle is worth manipulated fixed football betting involves calculating the cost and estimating the chance of landing in the middle. Continuing the example above, assume that the odds offered on ‘under 204.5’ and ‘over 200.5’ are both 1.90, and a €100 bet is placed on each. Let’s consider the profit and loss for different game totals.

#### Manipulated fixed matches today

For the totals 201, 202, 203 and 204, the bettor will win both bets for a profit of €180 (+€90 from each bet). For all other totals, they will win one (+€90) and lose one (-€100) for a loss of -€10. When will betting this middle be a profitable strategy? Soccer fixed match 1×2 bets are definitely worth exploring for people looking for a good earning strategy with GUARANTEED results.

To answer this question let’s consider how often this middle would need to land for the Weekend Fixed Matches Big Odds to break even. If the middle lands in the first game, the €180 profit could sustain the next 18 games of losses. Therefore, the break-even number of games is 19. So long as this middle lands in more than one in 19 games (5.3%), the strategy has positive Weekend Fixed Matches Big Odds. In effect, betting this middle is equivalent to having a €10 bet at odds of 19.0.

What happens to the break-even percentage when the odds change? The chart below plots how often a middle needs to land for a bettor to break even at different odds. The assumption is that the odds are the same for each side of the middle.

You may notice that the break-even percentage is equal to the bookmaker’s margin. For example, at odds of 1.95, a middle only needs to land 2.6% of the time to break-even, compared to 7.0% at odds of 1.87. To put it another way, betting at 1.95 compared to 1.87 is the difference between taking effective odds of 39.0 and 14.4 respectively, for a particular middle. The chart emphasises the importance of betting at the best possible odds when implementing a middling strategy.

##### 1×2 Best sources winning fixed matches

Not all points are equal

When betting a middle, it’s important to understand the scoring system and patterns in the sport on which you’re betting manipulated fixed matches. Some middles are more valuable than others. For example, in tennis, there are more potential score lines resulting in a differential of four games compared to three. Therefore a middle on the four-game Handicap will generally be more valuable (and thus more expensive) than a middle on the three-game Handicap fixed matches.

The chart below plots the distribution of the difference in games won for all ATP matches since 2007. A difference of four games occurs 30% more often than a difference of three.

Using FixedMatch.Bet odds to determine WEEKEND FIXED MATCHES PREDICTIONS

A number of previous betting resources articles have shown FixedMatch.Bet odds to be highly efficient. Therefore, in the absence of our own model-derived probability for a certain middle landing, we can use FixedMatch.Bet odds to work out the likelihood using alternate lines.

We could bet the 223 middle (over 222.5 and under 223.5), knowing from the chart above that we need this to land in 5.7% of games to break even (betting both sides at 1.892).

FixedMatch.Bet probability of the total landing 223 is 2.8% (51.4% + 51.4% – 100%). From the break-even chart above, we would need odds greater than 1.95 each side for this to be a middle with a positive expect value.

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What are the odds saying about the probability of landing on the three middle: Player A winning three more games than Player B? The sum of the true probabilities for Player A -2.5 (58.6%) and Player B +3.5 (49.7%) is 108.2%, and therefore FixedMatch.Bet expectation of landing on this middle is 8.2%. Using this probability, and assuming one side is bet with FixedMatch.Bet. We can determine what odds we would need to take on the other side to generate a middle with positive expected value.

FixedMatch.Bet has Player A -2.5 odds of 1.628, implying a Weekend Fixed Matches Big Odds Sof 61.4%. What odds do we need on the other side of the middle (Player B +3.5)? An implied probability of 46.8% brings the sum to 108.2%, meaning we would require odds of 2.14 (1/0.468) or higher at another bookmaker to take this middle.

If we can bet at odds of 2.14 or above, we will have generated a middle with positive expected value. Similarly, assuming we bet with FixedMatch.Bet on the other side, Player B +3.5 at odds 1.943, we would require another bookmaker to offer odds above 1.76 on Player A -2.5.

Is middling worthwhile?

Middling is a great betting strategy to exploit differential pricing between bookmakers, especially when there is considerable disagreement in the market. It can also be use successfully when a future line movement can be predict.

Middle bettors should be aware however, that variance will be high, as betting a middle is equivalent to backing a longshot. As with any 1×2 fixed match betting strategy, the most important factors when middling are an accurate assessment of the likelihood of success, and being disciplined to ensure you pay the right price.

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Expected goals: Can it beat the soccer odds fixed matches?

The question for any betting model is whether or not it beats the odds. As I wrote in part one, I am sceptical about a magic formula for betting. So can expected goals provide the solution? Can it beat the soccer odds fixed matches?

To answer this question we first have to start by looking at the soccer odds fixed matches 1×2. When I want to see if I can find biases in the soccer odds manipulated fixed matches I usually start with a statistical model called logistic regression.

The idea behind regression is to see how well the soccer odds predict the match outcome. Imagine we are looking at the probability of an away win.

To do this we fit the model to the Weekend Fixed Matches Big Odds of winning away. Where a is the bookmaker’s odds for the away win and is a constant. If you aren’t familiar with logistic regression there are plenty of online guides explaining.

Logistical regression: An example

Below is one example of a logistic regression for the last two seasons of the Premier League (2015/16 and 2016/17).

The size of the dots here are proportional to the number of times these odds were offered. The larger the dots, the more common these particular odds are.

If these circles lie underneath the dotted line then the probability of an away win was smaller than the odds predicted tips 1×2 today. If the circles lie over the line then the Weekend Fixed Matches Big Odds of an away win was larger than the odds predicted winning tips 1×2.

###### Weekend manipulated fixed games

The solid line is the best fit for the data. This line tells us is the overall trend. If you look carefully at the curve for probabilities predicted around 0.1, corresponding to odds of around 10.0. You’ll see that the curve lies slightly above the line, while for probabilities predicted over 0.25 the trend is reversed.

This tells us that over the last two seasons underdogs have won away from home and favourites have lost away from home more often than the bookmaker’s odds expected.

Underrated underdogs and overrated favourites

If there is value to be found over the last two seasons it is in predicting which underdogs will win away and which favourites will fail to win. It is here we can use Weekend Fixed Matches Big Odds. I did a new logistic regression with the following form:

I have now added the variable xGDiff. This variable is the expected goal difference between the two teams, calculated by looking at the teams’ average expected goals over the last 5 matches:

Performing this logistic regression, I found that teams playing away but with a more favourable xGDiff difference were more likely to win than the odds suggested.

So if we can find an underdog playing away with strong xG then the underdog is worth backing. Favourites playing away with a weak xG should be short

Logistic regression: Weekend Fixed Matches Big Odds

Below is an expected goals table for the current season (2017/18) as of week 11.

Here, we can use the WBA vs. Chelsea match to test the model. The xGDiff for these teams is:

(8.3+11.9 – 12.7-11.9)/2 = -2.7

###### European fixed matches Football betting

Per match, this is -0.25. Chelsea were the favourites, with odds of a=1.62* when this article was write. Substituting these odds and xGDiff into equation (2) gives P(away win)=42% (with parameters b0=-0.49  b=0.75 and b2=0.73 fitted using previous seasons’ data).

So while the odds suggest a 62% chance of Chelsea winning, the model suggests the probability is much lower. The best bet is for Chelsea not to win.

Another fixture that stands out from the above table is Southampton away to Liverpool. The xGDiff for these teams is 0.36 in Liverpool’s favour, which means they are favourites. But the odds for a Southampton win are 8.3, implying a win probability of 12%.

My model gives them a 15% chance of winning. This suggests that the Southampton win would be worth a bet. Although remember that even if the model is right you will only win 15% of the time.

Lessons learnt from the model

The main message is not the suggestions provided by the model (both WBA and Southampton lost), but the method. If you want to build a model and win money betting on soccer tips 1×2, always start with the odds.

First, use logistic regression to find inconsistencies in the odds. Then add in variables (such as expected goals) to see if you can get an edge. This edge will be small, but it could well pay off in the long term.

Updated: September 5, 2022 — 7:00 pm