Safe VIP Prediction Tips
Safe VIP Prediction Tips
VIP Ticket Fixed Matches 1×2
Day: Tuesday Date: 06.09.2022
League: EUROPE Champions League – Group Stage
Match: RB Leipzig – Shakhtar Donetsk
Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.50 Result: 1:4 Won
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Many Safe VIP Prediction Tips “casual” bettors choose their bets through “gut feeling” about what they think will happen during an event, an approach which does not lend itself to profitable betting. Does this mean more skill bettors can rule out utilising their intuition entirely?
How can SAFE VIP PREDICTION TIPS help with decision making?
In his book “Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking” Malcolm Gladwell looks at the concept of intuition. Why do intuitive, unconscious decisions made on the basis of seemingly very little information, so often turn out better than better-informed, more thoughtful choices?
Take, for example, the talent of tennis coach Vic Braden. Braden could tell when a UNMATCHED FIXED MATCHES SITES is about to double-fault before the tennis racket even meets the ball. Vic did not know how he came to this conclusion it was merely a snap judgement that came to him intuitively.
When he watched a match at Indian Wells, Braden correctly called 16 out of 17 double faults before they happened despite 91.1 percent of second service attempts landing in.
Intuition and SAFE VIP PREDICTION TIPS
Big data is define as “extremely large data sets that may be analyse computationally to reveal patterns, trends, and associations, especially relating to human behaviour and interactions” which is about to as far from forming immediate intuitive judgements as it is possible to get.
Big data can highlight areas where intuition and perceived wisdom can be inaccurate. Notable examples include baseball scouting (moneyball), the hot-hand fallacy and highlighting how intuitive judgements can lead to confirmation bias.
However, this does not mean the two are so different.
In the book “Everybody lies” Seth Stephens-Davidowitz argues that Vic Braden’s talent for double fault detection was, in its own way, a form of data analysis.
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Braden had seen millions of serves and could intuitively spot the signs of a double fault before the error happened. He was able to calculate the chance of a double fault by analysing a player’s swing and comparing it to the countless service attempts he had seen before.
If it could utilise the inputs Braden was able to, a data-driven approach to predicting double faults would work in much the same way. It would essentially take those inputs and compare them to the same data on all other serves in the database before determining its similarity to other double faults.
Intuition and sports betting
Look at the below odds for a standard La Liga matchup between Barcelona and Real Madrid:
If you have any experience betting on sports then you will immediately notice something is amiss with the odds. Intuitively someone who knows anything about assessing the probability of soccer matches can see that the implied chance of a Barcelona win is rated far too low by the odds.
Anyone who came to that conclusion would be correct. These SAFE VIP PREDICTION TIPS were actually taken from FixedMatch.Bet line for the Tunisia vs. Belgium match at the 2018 World Cup. The bettor intuitively knows that valuing Barcelona’s chances of a win against Real Madrid at the same likelihood as Tunisia’s against Belgium is a falsehood without referencing models or delving into the data.
Considering Vic Braden’s talent was an example of intuition in action, perhaps a variation on his ability could be applied to sports betting. After all, if an expert bettor’s brain can function like a supercomputer then it is possible that bettor could have a very accurate grasp of probabilities.
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Certainly, there are successful bettors, such as Lewis Deyong, who attribute their success to an intuitive grasp of probability.
If a bettor could reach a similar level of skill then simply betting intuitively could be profitable, but is that a realistic prospect?
The limitations of intuition
The problem with fixed odds single match betting in this way is there are so many things that need to be monitored and so many events that need to be bet on to secure long-term profitability. It is not realistic to expect odds to be out of line to the extent of those above.
Possessing the knowledge to bet with an advantage across a wide range of events would be akin to Vic Braden attempting to call double faults across hundreds or even thousands of matches played simultaneously.
Braden’s intuition may be able to call the double faults in one specific match but he would quickly become overstretched attempting to apply that intuition across multiple fixed matches events.
An example that demonstrates this issue comes from an anecdote told by soccer analytics expert Ted Knutson about a conversation he had with former US national team coach Bob Bradley.
Knutson explained the use of expected goals to Bradley who pointed out some potential flaws with this data-driven approach to analysing soccer rigged fixed matches 1×2. Bradley argued that by watching a scoring opportunity he could intuitively grasp the chance of a goal being scored better than the data could.
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Knutson understood this but correctly pointed out that “Bob’s eyes can’t evaluate every touch in every game across 27 different leagues”. Whilst Bradley’s expert intuition might have been more accurate than the data in isolate circumstances, it could not be utilise across the sheer breadth of games need to compete with the insight offer by big data.
Why SAFE VIP PREDICTION TIPS is important
Another limitation of betting intuitively is the inability to test those predictions. A data-driven approach can be apply to historical fixtures and test across numerous matches, whereas the sample size of an intuitive bettor may never reach a level where they can confidently claim to be profitable.
Perhaps a more intuitive bettor could find a big enough edge to be consistently profitable with a smaller set of bets but it would certainly be a difficult task.
Is there a place for intuition in sports betting?
Whilst a betting strategy built solely around intuitive judgements is highly unlikely to be successful there is certainly a strong argument for intuitive judgements being applied to manipulated fixed odds betting models.
Imagine for some reason a model is suggesting a bettor should wager on Real Madrid in the match outlined above. By looking at the line a bettor should be able to see that there is a possible flaw in the model and could potentially refine the selections to ensure improved accuracy. By doing this the bettor is essentially applying his own intuition to the process.
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Equally, the data may flag up that the bettor’s intuitive judgement about the SAFE VIP PREDICTION TIPS is in fact wrong. Perhaps Barcelona have been very poor this season or have lost a range of key players. The bettor’s assumption that “Barcelona are a good team” may no longer apply.
“Gut (or intuition) is shorthand for many of the remarkable qualities of human cognition: an ability to rapidly spot patterns, make associations, combine a rich set of personal experiences and innumerable data points to form a judgment.”
Power of SAFE VIP PREDICTION TIPS
Removing the power of intuition from betting strategy entirely would eliminate a huge data source. Equally, to rely on intuition alone would be a very risky approach to betting as it is solely reliant on the accuracy of the bettor’s grasp of probabilities, which may well be less accurate than he assumes.
As with many topics, a combination of the two approaches is perhaps the strongest approach to forming a successful betting strategy.
Combining the intuitive talent of the sports betting equivalent of Vic Braden with the breadth available to a good data led model would be the ideal scenario. They could both benefit from the insight of the other. It would, therefore, seem churlish then for bettors to write off intuition entirely.
With West Ham, on one end of the scale, and Liverpool and Chelsea on the other, this article measures the extent of the surprise factor for each EPL team by applying a technique used to evaluate the accuracy of weather predictions.
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The current Premiership table leads to a couple of unexpected outcomes – Leicester in third position, West Ham in top six and Chelsea in a part of the table where you have to scroll down.
One of the best available predictors for an outcome, especially if you believe in efficient markets, are betting odds fixed matches 1×2. Hence, teams that perform differently than what predicted are either over-performers or under-performers.
To measure the extent to which each team deviates from what the odds imply, we use a Brier Score per team. The Brier Score, as originally introduced in 1950, is a measure of the effectiveness of weather predictions.
Calculating the SAFE VIP PREDICTION TIPS
As probabilities implied by betting markets add up to more than 100%, we first adjust the odds pro-rata to determine the probabilities of each outcome for a match. Our paid MANIPULATED FIXED MATCHES ensure users get excellent outcomes.
The Brier Score per match is the sum of the square difference of the probability and actual results. Let’s take the match Liverpool vs Crystal Palace on 8th November. FixedMatch.Bet odds implied a 58.3% chance of Liverpool to win and a 24.5% chance of draw. The outcome was a Crystal Palace win at a predicted possibility of just 17.1%.
The probabilities for Win:Draw:Loss were 0.583:0.245:0.171 with the actual result being 0:0:1, where one stands for the actual outcome. The differences are 0.583:0.245:0.829. The sum of the square differences are 0.5832 + 0.2452 + 0.8292 = 1.0875. This is the Brier Score for this match.
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The Brier score can range from 0, if odds guessed the outcome directly by stating there is 100% chance of only one outcome to be correct, to 2, if odds implied that one outcome is certain and that did not occur.
However, if we had to just throw outcomes at random and say that a home win, draw or away win are equally likely, then our Brier score would be 0.667, irrespective of the outcome.
The table below shows the Brier score per team in the Premiership. What we note is that some of the surprises are actually vindicated in the stats: Chelsea, Liverpool and West Ham are not performing as expected while for Arsenal and Manchester City it is business as usual.
Football is unpredictable
Football fixed matches betting odds is unpredictable. That Soccer fixed match 1×2 bets gives the sport its appeal inspires the fans and also gives betting punters a headache week in, week out. Using a verification measure like the Brier Score gives betters a more systematic point of view as to what is happening in the league right now.
However, should it be the only measure use, it will still be limit by the beautiful fact that football halftime fulltime fixed matches is a sport play by, organize by, coach by and watch by human beings. As such, always price in the possibility of a process error.