Category: Free Tips Predictions

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This category includes free tips predictions published as additional content. We do not apply the same level of attention to these matches as we do to our fixed matches offers.

Free tips are intended for users who are not ready to purchase and prefer to follow free betting suggestions. We do not select these matches through the same process as our fixed matches.

Some free tips predictions are also based on information and matches already shared on forums and tipster platforms.

Due to our focus and workload around active fixed matches offers, there may be days when we do not publish any free tips predictions.

In this category, we often publish educational content alongside the free tips. This is not a fixed rule. Some posts include only the match, while others may include additional explanations with educational context rather than direct match analysis.

If you do not want to spend time or take higher risk with free tips predictions, you can go directly to our offers in the Get Fixed Matches category, where all current active offers are listed.

For more information, or if you want to purchase any of the offers, you can contact us at: [email protected]

2026 Free Tips Predictions

Strong Football Fixed Matches

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Strong Football Fixed Matches

Strong Football Fixed Matches

Soccer predicted Free Tips 1×2 Today
Day: Friday    Date: 24.10.2025

League: NETHERLANDS Eerste Divisie
Match: Almere City – Jong AZ
Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.50    Result: 1:3 Won

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Betting Soccer Fixed Games odds

This article is all about betting on strong football fixed matches. We will guide you through strategies about strong football fixed matches so give this article a complete read to learn about betting on strong football fixed matches.

1. UNDERSTAND THE CONCEPT OF VALUE Critical

If you don’t have this, walk away. Sure you might be certain that a 1.25 favourite is going to win. But are the odds being offered giving any value? Let’s learn more about how you can bet on strong football fixed matches.

Plenty of times we’ve heard casual gamblers say “There’s no way this team is going to lose this game.” Well they might be legitimate favorites, but is the probability of them winning better than the odds being offered? Betting on strong football fixed matches with this frame of mind is a little like saying an over-priced wide-screen TV was good value just because you really really really wanted it. It doesn’t work.

Value is a simple concept, but most of the betting public don’t understand this. And perhaps thankfully so, because its this naive or ‘square’ money that can skew the market. It leaves great opportunities for the minority of gamblers who do know how to recognize value of strong football fixed matches.

Being able to spot value means that you are able to spot odds that are too high, consistently and systematically – and capitalize on those opportunities.

In principle this is not unlike successful trading with stocks. It makes sense to buy a particular stock when it is undervalued, as this means it likely will appreciate in value later. If you are focused on sports betting, than your job each match day is to find the undervalued teams, and “buy their stock” in a manner of speaking.

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Spotting value

Spotting value is in essence about judging probabilities more correctly than the market does. Of course it is difficult to do that for every game and every sport, but that isn’t necessary. Your big advantage over the bookmaker lies in the ability to skip matches with un favorable odds. Just like you don’t have to purchase all stocks available. The bookmaker pretty much has to offer odds for almost all strong football fixed matches at the very least in the most popular leagues.

Strong Football Fixed Matches

Spotting value is the hardest thing to do in this business, and you will need a lot of practice to pull it off consistently. Only once you have developed your ability to consistently identify value, you will have a systematic edge.

2. UNDERSTAND BASIC MATHS

STRONG FOOTBALL FIXED MATCHES

If you’ve ever said the phrase “I’m not a matches guy but….”, then you probably shouldn’t be a betting guy either. While plenty of gamblers can make a success of it by betting on instinct and ‘feel’. To be successful long term you need a viable staking plan and you need to understand what the odds reflect in terms of probability.

In short, it’s a numbers game, and you need an adequate relationship with division and multiplication as a minimum.

3. UNDERSTAND THE ODDS OF STRONG FOOTBALL FIXED MATCHES

This depends upon the popularity of the event. But in general, bookmaker odds will be more a reflection of what they expect the general public to play, rather than on the actual probabilities of either outcome. Of course, it’s not quite that simple. But in general, bookmakers will set their odds soccer fixed games so as to attract betting on either side of the odds betting free tips 1×2. So as to balance their liability and take their commission.

Daily Fixed Match 1×2

This leaves smart gamblers to find great value opportunities where the general public’s opinion is just plain wrong. It also means that great value can be found on events where there is expected to be greater interest than normal by the occasional or casual gambler, who let’s be honest, knows nothing or very little in terms of profitable betting fixed matches football strategy. Events like the Super Bowl, Cup finals and major horse racing events are prime candidates for this sort of opportunity.

If you want to bet successfully, you need the right bookmaker. You will need to find bookmakers that actually let you win. Sadly it’s an ugly truth that most bookmakers won’t and will limit their successful customers, or may even outright ban them.

4. POSSESS THE ABILITY TO FALL IN LOVE WITH THE UGLY DUCK

The longer we have been betting max odds fixed matches, the more we have come to fall in love with the team that nobody likes. In fact, we feel better about a potential bet the uglier it looks on paper. Sounds counter intuitive we know. But the less the general public likes a team, the more we like the look of them in terms of value. Especially a team that might have performed well over a long period but may have had a bad run of maybe 4 or 5 games. Just watch the general public jump off them, and watch their value rise.

5. DON’T DWELL ON THE PAST OR CELEBRATE FOR TOO LONG

Don’t let a recent losing run throw you off your game. Put it out of your mind and stay with your analysis and have faith that the wheel will turn. Similarly, don’t let a recent winning streak give you false courage and lead you to over extend yourself. Again, stay with your analysis and stick with your plan.

VIP odds Predictions Tips 1×2

6. Define your expectations for strong football fixed match

Multi-bets Fixed Matches. Parlays. Teasers. Whatever you like to call them, know when to bet them. And when not to. Sure they offer the promise of the big score, the big pay day. But unless you have done your analysis and have located true value, they are a terrible way to bet.

Look at it this way. If you place a multi-bet of 4 legs. And you were getting full price even money odds of 2.00 for each leg, the odds for that multi would be 16.00. Now lets look at a real world example where you’re being offered lets say 1.90 for ‘even money’ with the bookmaker taking out 5%: the odds for that same 4 leg multi would be just 13.00. That’s taking out close to 19% of the full price of that bet.

But if you have located true value, then multi’s can be tremendous value as you multiply the value into each leg. The issue is of course, locating true value. Everyone who adds a leg to a multi does so because they believe they are finding value. Nobody bets odds fixed matches that don’t represent value to them. But key to creating value multi’s is in finding true value or else you’re only diminishing your chances of success with each under valued leg you add.

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WIN Fixed Matches Every Time

WIN Fixed Matches Every Time

Peru Fixed Matches
Day: Thursday    Date: 23.10.2025

League: EUROPE Conference League
Match: Lincoln Red Imps – Lech Poznan
Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.50    Result: 2:1 Won

Egypt Fixed matches [email protected]

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Username for Telegram: @robertweldon

Betting Fixed Match 1×2

It is hard to deny that football rigged fixed matches big odds is that the hottest sport. many fans worldwide watch live broadcasts of key matches involving national teams, top European domestic leagues and Champions League. Other football sure win fixed odds 1×2 events like the Europa League are equally popular. Supported this, many of us want to monetize their knowledge. Sports betting is one among the foremost obvious options for this. Here are some recommendations on the way to win fixed matches every time.

Profit With Matched Betting

One of the choices to extend your winnings is matched betting. this is often a sort of strategy supported the other outcomes of football fixed matches. you’ll even use special bookmaker software to trace the results. because of risk control and special services, you’ll automate rates and reduce risks and you will win fixed matches every time.

Keep a Record

You should take notes to arrange all of your betting correct football tips activities. What are your bets? what proportion money did you stake? is that the profit well worth the betting risk? you ought to record every action you’re taking to know the risks and use money management. Without this, your bets are often chaotic. Most of the people keep everything in mind, but this is often the incorrect approach. The slightest excitement and you deviate from your strategy. Here many bettors make big mistakes and lose fortunes. Keep record of your events and win fixed matches every time.

Change Bookmakers

The fact is that a lot of bookmakers have an interest in newbies and offer tempting welcome bonuses. If the wagering conditions are acceptable, you’ll activate one among the promotions and increase your initial deposit. Also, some bookmakers offer risk-free bets under certain conditions. This is often very true if you’re quite confident about the result of a match.

Winning Fixed Games Soccer UK

Another reason to vary bookmaker sites more often is that the restrictions. Nobody likes to lose money. If you begin winning often, your account are going to be limited in terms of the amount of bets or daily actions. Many little-known bookmakers may block your account, saying that you simply were cheating.

This is especially frustrating for college kids who spend their scholarships on betting. an identical situation are often traced in unemployed professors reviews since a gorgeous showcase doesn’t always mean a top quality product or service. Join fixedmatch.bet and win fixed matches every time.

Don’t Bet with your Heart

This is another problem for those that want to win an outsized amount quickly. Excitement is commendable, but don’t let it cloud your mind. Stick with your strategy and analyze every soccer match. If your bet seems to be a failure, then don’t rush to form a bet again with a doubled amount. The Martingale Method and other options are nothing quite an effort to motivate you to spend more.

Don’t ditch money management. You want to have a transparent limit on the cash that you simply are willing to lose in one go. Don’t bet quite your strategy allows. Otherwise, you risk getting big losses. this is often very true for overly emotional students. you ought to seek help from paper help or other writing services to figure on your betting strategy fixed matches.

1x2 WIN Fixed Matches Every Time

Know Football Inside Out

There are many nuances that you simply should know. For instance, some teams show cyclical statistics and play better reception stadiums. you ought to remember of player injuries, general fitness, and team morale. Many things add up to one pattern.

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Of course, football 1×2 sure odds is about surprises. For instance, nobody expected Leicester City to win the Premier League. They started the campaign in 2016 as 5,000-1 outsiders for the title. However, we all know the result. Knowing the littlest details is vital to you. this is often also true for college kids, as analysis of a selected topic provides more information.

Know Your Markets

This is a logical continuation of the point. Each league has its own nuances. The French and Italian championships have 3-5 leaders who are constantly winning prizes. But check out the Premier League and therefore the champions of the last five seasons. We guarantee you’ll see different teams.

Why is that this so important? the purpose is that you simply can lose tons of cash if you don’t know the nuances of the market. The proper bets will assist you win pile. Rash actions are undesirable, especially once you are spending tons of cash. Attempt to explore one championship or consider national teams. Then it’ll be easier for you to form football predictions free tips 1×2.

Take the small Wins

Do you skills the simplest bettors came to success? They made small victories. You ought to make small bets and take profits at a particular level. Then your victories are going to be quite defeats. attempt to avoid emotions. Even a clear outsider can beat a more titled opponent under certain conditions. This is often why small wins are preferred over large single fixed bets.

Get to understand Football

I know, it is a pretty obvious point to form, but would you enter a computer shop and tell the author the counter, “I do not know much about computers, but give me the simplest one you have”?

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Nope, you’d determine what you’ll about computers from websites, magazines and word-of-mouth before going shopping, because the last item anyone wants is to urge fleeced. you’ve to understand your market, whether you are looking at buying a replacement PC or depending on soccer big odds ticket betting.

This means ensuring you’ve got all the knowledge at your disposal that would be useful. With these, you’ll understand the way to win football correct fixed bets whenever. From where are you able to get this knowledge? Allow me to elucidate.

Statistics

Bets are made on a transparent understanding of what football daily fixed match teams, and footballers, do best. This suggests watching the statistics on offer from various websites.

Fixedmatch.bet may be a good place to start out. We analyze the games, watching past form, player fitness, and the way teams are found out. We also provide you with regular content that puts all that together and explains to you ways to win football bets better than Yahoo Answers ever could. Simply put we offer you the simplest possible information out there so as for you to develop your own personal Football Betting Strategy that help win fixed matches every time.

Successful Football Betting

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Successful Football Betting

Successful Football Betting

How can I be successful in football betting?
Day: Wednesday    Date: 22.10.2025

League: EUROPE Champions League
Match: Galatasaray – Bodo/Glimt
Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.50    Result: 3:1 Won

18 Tips for Successful Betting [email protected]

Telegram support: +46 73 149 05 68
Username for Telegram: @robertweldon

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What is a Sports Betting System?

A betting system is a collection of trial and error procedures that a bettor can do in order to find the winning sports betting formula. When the margin is higher than 8 percent, you are using a sports betting system if you plan to gamble on all football info Fixed Matches clubs. The criteria depends on the maker of it. Furthermore, there is no limit on the number of parameters that can be used to know the outcome or result of the game. Learn about the system for successful football betting correct fixed matches.

The bettor’s strategy can influence the amount of money they wager on a game. If the game is seen as a high-opportunity bet, sports trading platforms may recommend a larger bet, while a low-opportunity bet may need a smaller bet. Sign up to FixedMatch.Bet to learn more.

3 types of betting systems for successful football betting

Most punters risk whatever they feel like at the time, while others base their decisions on their belief before placing any bets. They also make use of strategies to somehow feel a sense of relief knowing that they will not totally lose. Here’s our top 3 betting systems that can help you make a successful bet fixed matches.

Zig-zag Betting Theory

The fundamental premise is that a strong team is difficult to defeat twice in a row. Furthermore, according to this hypothesis, oddsmakers should not take this into account and overvalue favourites. If you can see, this easily extends to the NBA, NHL, and MLB postseason, as they all consist of a series of games. When a player takes the first game of a series, they almost always lose the second.

HalfTime/FullTime Weekend Fixed Matches

According to the Zig-Zag principle, this is the most important thing to remember when placing a wager. Then you can use things like home-court advantage to help you place bets better.

It’s one thing to find a betting fixed matches system and gamble it blindly in the hopes of a positive outcome. Finding a betting scheme like the Zig-Zag Theory and applying it to profit on sports leagues is a totally different matter. Learn this theory for successful football betting.

Factors to Look For When Betting Zig-Zag Theory

Keep an eye out for these special circumstances and you might discover a profitable spot to use the zig-zag theory:

Home Team Goes Up 1-0

This is a scenario that happens approximately 53% of the time in the NBA and NHL combined. Statistics in the NBA show that if the home team wins Game 1, they have a 65% chance of winning the series.

In the NHL, those odds shoot up all the way to 76%, with the most likely outcome there being that the home team wins the series in six games.

If the home team goes up 1-0 it’s a great opportunity to bet on the losing team in the next game.

Home Team Goes Up 2-0

Betting the underdog on this third game is one of the most common ways that bettors play the zig-zag theory. The underlying strategy is that after the lower-seeded team loses the first two games on the road, they will play their hearts out in Game 3, on home ice, when the series is still within reach.

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Between the NBA and the NHL, the lower-seeded team ends up winning nearly 60% of the time when they go back home after losing the first two games. In a world where many of the odds are near 50%, placing a bet knowing that the historical odds are near 60% is a huge advantage.

Home Team Loses First Game

Of course, the home team doesn’t always win their opening game at home. When the lower-seeded team is able to win that first game, placing bets on the higher-seeded team to bounce back in Game 2 is usually a shrewd move.

While momentum is a funny and sometimes unpredictable thing, odds are that the home team plays a better game on home ice in Game 2. Rough odds suggest that higher-seeded teams in the NHL and NBA teams win 75% of the time in Game 2 when they’re coming off of a loss.

Proportional successful football Betting

This one starts with a fraction of the bankroll being put on the line. Following a successful wager, you raise your bets by the same amount. This will help you continue your steak for successful football betting.

Example: Let’s say that you have a €1,000 bankroll. You wager 5.5% or €110 of this amount on an outcome with -110 odds. You win and add €100 to your bankroll. The amount of your bankroll is now worth €1,100. In the next bet, it will be worth 10% of €1,100. Meaning,

€1,100 x 0.1 = €110

So, your next bet must be €110

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Following a draw, you can return to betting the initial percentage of your wager. Meanwhile, you will decide whether to avoid trading prior to a loss in order to win. Proportional betting has the benefit of allowing you to increase your winnings quickly after a few good bets. By the percentage you wager after each victory, you’ll be betting more of your winnings.

Martingale Betting

This system is perhaps the most well-known sports betting system and what the best football winning fixed matches analysts recommended. This scheme requires you to bet flat before you lose. If you lose, you double your bet before you win again. At this point, you go back to your original bet size. It is a radical sports betting strategy that seeks to offset your risks by doubling your bets on the next bet. This has been rated as one of the best sports betting tactics by several betting reviews.

Example: Let’s say that you bet €110 on an outcome with -110 odds and lose €110 for this sequence. Then you are betting €220 on -110 odds and lose -€330. After that, you’ll be betting €440 on -110 odds and lose -€770. Now, you have to bet €880 on -110 odds to win €800 +€30. Your total profit now for the sequence is €30. You will then return now to a €110 bet. As simple as that.

Full Time Fixed Matches Big Odds

You make a €30 profit after only winning one of four bets. As a result, this device not only assists you in recouping losses, but also in accumulating winnings fixed matches. Regrettably, the Martingale is a very dangerous strategy. To avoid going bankrupt by doubling bets after each defeat, you’d need infinite funds. There’s also the issue of betting caps at sportsbooks and internet poker platforms. You can’t use the Martingale to its full potential if you’re just able to bet €5,000 on football odds fixed betting matches, for example.

We’ve all seen how betting above our means will lead to some seriously risky decisions, so please bet safely and know your limits. Only use the best sports betting brokers like FixedMatch.Bet.

Successful Football Betting

The Ultimate Successful football betting – Tips and Advice

Before you embark on sports betting, it is advisable to learn the basics first. If you can get the simple things right, you will enjoy your sports betting. According to data from leading online sportsbooks like FixedMatch.Bet online soccer betting is the most dominant form of sports betting. In this article, you will read soccer betting tips fixed matches and advice that are very straightforward. The hints might not turn you into a consistent winner right away, but they will get you started on the right path to success. If you have experience betting, the tips will help you correct some mistakes you might be making without knowing. Keep reading to find out more.

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Learn Everything You Can About Successful football betting

This tip sounds very obvious, right? If you are a soccer fan, this might not apply to you, but for new soccer fans, you must familiarize yourself with the sport. Luckily, soccer is an easy game to understand, and there is plenty of information available on the sport.

The main things you should focus on are the history of the sport, the rules of the game, and the governing bodies. You should also find out what are the major soccer clubs, tournaments, and leagues. Finally, you need to research the top players and managers in the game at the moment.

Patience Is A Betting Virtue!

Soccer offers gamblers many betting fixed matches options. You will find a soccer match to bet on almost every day. It is advisable to avoid betting on every game; be selective. If you are betting on soccer fixed matches to make money, you must be patient because it will take some time to learn soccer betting strategies.

Successful football betting will not come overnight. Veteran bettors will tell you not to rush things. Moreover, don’t be discouraged if results don’t go your way at first. Be patient and keep learning and always try to improve your betting skills. Eventually, you will be able to learn how to do successful football betting.

Know the Factors That Affect Soccer Matches

One of the essential things soccer betting fans must know is what affects the outcome of a match. Usually, a team’s quality and the quality of players are what come to mind whenever this question is popped. Many other factors affect the outcome of games, including:

  • Playing style Weather
  • Motivation Injuries
  • Current form Discipline
Strong Fixed Matches

Before placing your bet, ensure you look at these factors. You should also look at the head-to-head statistics of the teams playing.

Consider Alternative Bets

Many soccer betting fans waste all their energy trying to pick out the winners. While this strategy is okay, it does not mean it is the best one. When you check a top betting site like FixedMatch.Bet, you will discover many other sports sections to bet on, besides soccer. According to soccer betting veterans, the best value is usually hidden in bets other than the game’s winner.

Some common alternatives to think about for successful football betting are:

Many gamblers betting on soccer fixed matches are also fans of the sport. These fans are usually supporters of a particular team, making it easy for them to be partisan. Your love for one specific team could affect your betting.

The best approach is to avoid betting on the team you support. However, if you can control your emotions, then you can bet on your favorite based on the facts, even if it means putting money on them losing.

Final Thoughts on successful football betting

The advice you have read in this piece is enough to get you started. It is now upon you to keep learning. Remember, always bet responsibly. For successful football betting. Hopefully this article will help you in getting the help you need for successful football betting.

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Predictions Tips Fixed Matches today

Predictions Tips Fixed Matches today

Daily real fixed match 1×2
Day: Tuesday    Date: 21.10.2025

League: EUROPE Champions League League phase
Match: Barcelona – Olympiacos
Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.50    Result: 6:1 Won

Best sources for fixed matches 100% safe [email protected]

Telegram support: +46 73 149 05 68
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Daily fixed match 1×2 betting

With Predictions Tips Fixed Matches today In February 2019, FixedMatch.Bet Betting Resources published my article modelling a bettor’s range of possible betting returns. Around an expected performance there is a distribution of possible outcomes influenced by good and bad luck, defined by the mathematics of the normal distribution. To help bettors visualise this, I made available a simple performance distribution calculator.

This analysis only considered stakes of the same size (level stakes). Whilst I’m very much an advocate of this money management strategy, others quite reasonably prefer a different one. The most common one is to bet a percentage stake based on the current size of one’s bankroll.

Unsurprisingly, the aforementioned method is known as percentage staking. It’s a strategy I’ve discussed before on FixedMatch.Bet in comparison to level staking. The simplest version is to bet the same percentage for every bet, regardless of the odds. More sophisticated versions, like Kelly staking, advocate taking both the odds and the size of one’s expected value into account when defining the percentage size.

How does PREDICTION TIPS FIXED MATCHES TODAY work?

Suppose a bettor starts with a bankroll of 100 units. They decide they want to bet 1% of their bankroll on their bets. The first bet will therefore be 1 unit. If it wins at odds of 2.00, the bankroll will now stand at 101. Hence, their next bet will have a stake of 1.01 units, which is 1% of 101. If the first bet had lost, the bankroll would stand at 99 units and the next bet would have a stake of 0.99 units.

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Kelly staking specifically defines the percentage figure that should be applied by dividing the expected value by the decimal fixed matches betting odds minus 1. For example, a bet at odds of 3.00 with an expected value of 10% or 0.1 would be assigned a percentage stake of 0.1 / 3 – 1 = 5%. There are those who argue Kelly staking is too risky to be considered a realistic money management strategy, since it can sometimes advise very large percentage figures. To moderate this risk, fractional Kelly is often considered.

The skewed distribution of possible returns from percentage staking

The chart below (reproduced from my earlier article on FixedMatch.Bet) compares the distribution of possible returns for level stakes versus percentage staking for one manipulated football fixed betting scenario produced via a Monte Carlo simulation. In comparison to level staking, percentage staking, with some good fortune, can see some very big Predictions Tips Fixed Matches today bankrolls.

The distribution has what we would term positive skew. In this scenario, some profits were considerable larger than 7,000 units but for clarity I have omitted them.

Quantifying returns mathematically

In fact, for the simplest of scenarios where the fixed matches 1×2 odds and stake percentage of every bet are the same, we don’t need to resort to a Monte Carlo simulation; it’s possible to produce the distribution mathematically.

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Consider the following example. A bettor places their first bet at evens with a 10% stake. If it wins, their bankroll is now 110% (or 1.1) times the original bankroll. If it loses, it will be only 90% (or 0.9) times the original bankroll. The same is true after each sequential bet. Consequently, if the bettor bets 10 times and has six winners, we can easily calculate the growth in their bankroll as follows:

Bankroll growth = 1.16 x 0.94 = 1.162 or 116.2%

It doesn’t matter what order the wins and losses come in. The bettor could start with six winners and finish with four losers; or they could start with four winners and finish with six losers; or any other of the 210 total possible ways of arranging this combination of winners and losers. They will still finish with 116.2% of what they started with Predictions Tips Fixed Matches today.

Examples

Thus, for n bets with stakes S% and w winners:

Bankroll growth = (1 + S)w(1 – S)n-w

The biggest bankroll growth in my Monte Carlo simulation above was 948.8. I haven’t kept the actual win/loss figures but knowing there were 1,000 bets with odds of 2.0 and stakes of 5%, I can use this formula to determine that the actual number of winners was 581.

Furthermore, if we know the expected value (EV) for our bets, we can calculate the expected rate of bankroll growth as follows:

PREDICTION TIPS FIXED MATCHES TODAY = {(EV x S) +1}n

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For example, if this bettor’s EV is 20% or 0.2, their expected (or mean) bankroll growth will be given by {(0.2*0.1)+1}10 = 1.0210 = 1.219 or 121.9%. Readers might observe that this is greater than the bankroll growth associated with winning six out of 10 even-money bets, which is what is implied by a 20% EV.

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This is because the bankroll growth for more wins contributes disproportionately more to the average than those for fewer wins – remember the distribution of possible returns is positively skewed. Thus, whilst the most typical (median) bankroll growth in this example will be 116.2%, the expected (or mean) value will be 121.9%.

Obviously, this assumes that EV is the same for every bet, a huge oversimplification but necessary to define the mathematics.

If we rewrite (EV x S) + 1 as the expected bank growth factor, F, then we have: Expected bankroll growth = Fn ,and thus: n = LogF(Expected bankroll growth), where F is the base of the logarithm.

For bets with the same stake percentage and EV, the logarithm of the expected bankroll growth will be proportional to the number of bets. Similarly, the logarithm of the actual bankroll growth will also be proportional to the number wins. This is visually demonstrate for our example bettor here. The second chart is the same as the first but with a logarithmic y-axis.

Correct fixed matches 1×2 betting today

You may have noticed that five wins and five losses, which for a level staker would result in a break-even return from even-money bets, results in a slight loss with percentage staking (bankroll growth = 0.951). It takes a bigger percentage growth to recover a previous loss, but if percentages for stakes stay the same, one win following one loss won’t quite recover the initial lost stake. Similarly, one loss following one win will lose you more than you initially won on your first bet. The same is true over 10 bets (or any number of bets). If the bankroll growth for one win and one loss is 0.99 (1.1 x 0.9), then for five wins and five losses it is 0.995 = 0.951.

The skewed distribution of returns from percentage staking is log-normal.

If the number of wins in a series of bets is proportional to the logarithm of the bankroll growth, we should expect to see a log-normal distribution of possible bankroll growth.

A log-normal distribution is one where the logarithm of the data is normally distribute (the familiar bell-shape curve). Below I have plotted the frequency distribution of the natural logarithm (Ln) of the 10,000 observed bankroll growths from the same Monte Carlo simulation I referred to earlier.

The average or expected bankroll growth for this Monte Carlo sample was 12.2. How does that compare to the figure calculated from first principles using the equation above? With an EV of 5% (0.05) for the 1,000 bets and the stake size 5% (or 0.05), the answer is 1.00251000 = 12.1, an excellent match.

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Unsurprisingly, the median bankroll growth (the centre of the distribution) was considerably lower at 3.49, with only 21.7% of bankroll growth figures higher than the expected figure of 12.2. Remember, a few very large bankrolls positively skew the mean.

Estimating the probability of PREDICTION TIPS FIXED MATCHES TODAY

Is there a way to calculate the probability of achieving a specific bankroll growth? One can look at the chart above and make visual estimates, although given the logarithmic scale, that is no easy task. Alternatively, we can just count the number of times a bankroll finished higher than a certain threshold. In this Monte Carlo sample, for example, a bankroll finished with more than it started with (bankroll growth = 1) 78.5% of the time, and at least doubled 63.5% of the time.

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However, using Excel there is an easier method. Having calculated the natural logarithm (using the =Ln function) for all simulated bankroll growth figures, it is then possible to use the follow function:

Where x is your chosen bankroll growth threshold value (for example 2 for a doubling), ‘mean’ and ‘SD’ are the average and standard deviation respectively of your natural logarithm values, and ‘true’ ensures a cumulative probability. Using this formula, the probability of finishing with more than you had start with (x = 1) was estimate to be 78.2%, the probability of doubling your bankroll (x = 2) was 63.6% and the probability of exceeding expectation (x = 12.2) was 21.7%, almost the same figures as from counting Predictions Tips Fixed Matches today.

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Provided all our bets have the same odds and stake percentage, we can build a calculator to put our bankroll growth equation to work, plotting the distribution of possible bankroll growth figures for different win/loss rates. Using an Excel calculator that I have built for my own website, the charts below show outputs for various betting scenarios.

The first compares the performances of three different fixed games betting odds using a fully Kelly staking plan over 1,000 bets. With bets holding an EV of 5%, the percentages stakes for odds 1.5, 2.0, and 5.0 respectively are 10%, 5% and 1.25%. Expected bankroll growth for these three odds scenarios are 147, 12.1 and 1.87, whilst median bankroll growth figures are 12.7, 3.49 and 1.36. The green distribution is effectively a match for the Monte Carlo distribution above, given that the inputs for the model were the same as Predictions Tips Fixed Matches today.