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Fixed Matches Theories

Fixed Matches Theories

Fixed Matches Theories


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Day: Tuesday     Date: 23.02.2021

League: NETHERLANDS Eerste Divisie
Match: FC Volendam – Jong Ajax
Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.50    Result: 3:2 Won

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We’ve heard a lot of fixed matches theories over the many years we’ve been betting on football. Some of these fixed matches theories are questionable to say the least, and some are outright ridiculous.

Some theories are sensible and well thought-out though, and learning about them can be useful. They can help you to understand why certain things happen, or don’t happen. Some theories can even directly help you to make good betting football tips decisions. These are the ones we’ve discussed below. They are all relatively simple, but there’s at least some merit in each one of them.

  • Good teams win, bad teams cover
  • Fading the public theory
  • Steam betting theory
  • Bounce-back theory
  • Sandwich game theory
  • Bye week theory

Fixed Matches Theories

Good teams win, bad teams cover

The idea behind this theory is basically that “bad” NFL teams are often not as bad as they are perceived to be. While good teams are expected to win their games straight up, the so-called bad teams are more than capable of covering the spread.

This theory is valid, but it doesn’t really tell us anything.

It should be somewhat obvious that teams are capable of covering the spread. A point spread is essentially to make the two teams in a game even-money propositions for the purposes of wagering. The underdogs are SUPPOSED to have the same chance of covering as the underdog.

People often quote this theory as an actual reason for backing an underdog though, and this line of reasoning is not especially sensible. Yes, it’s often right to back the underdog, but you shouldn’t do so blindly based solely on this theory.

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Fading the public theory

Remember how we said earlier that most bettors lose? This theory is based on that fact to some extent. The idea is that if most people are losing, then most people are betting on the wrong outcome. Therefore, betting the opposite to those people is likely to be a winning fixed matches betting approach.

Against the majority is known as “fading the public,” and it used to be a reasonably effective strategy. After all, there’s some sound logic at play here. If you do the complete opposite to what the losers are doing, then surely you’re going to make some money?

Sadly, no. Not anymore. Fading the public did actually used to work, but this was back when the bookmakers set their odds and lines based almost entirely on how the recreational bettors were likely to bet. For example, they’d make a popular team -8 when they really should be -6. They’d know that the betting public would still back the favorites at that spread, so they didn’t need to offer a “fair” line.

Bookmakers can’t get away with that now. The market is too competitive, and even recreational bettors know to shop around. Plus, there are too many smart betting football fixed matches bettors who would quickly take advantage of a skewed line just like in the example above. They’d bet heavily on the underdog, and the bookmakers would stand to lose big sums of money. So the odds and lines we see these days are almost always very close to being fair (with some vig built in of course).

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As a result, fading the public doesn’t really work as a standalone strategy. However, the basic theory does still have some merit. The bookmakers still factor public opinion into the odds and lines they offer. In the right circumstances, this can be taken advantage of. Check out our article on using public opinion when NFL betting for more information.

Steam betting theory

This is essentially the reverse of the fading public theory. It’s linked to the fact that odds and lines sometimes change quickly and drastically due to the serious bettors putting their bets on. These big changes are known as “steam moves.” The theory is that you should follow those moves, and place your bets accordingly. It’s based on what’s essentially a very simple idea.

It makes a lot of sense to do what the smart bettors are doing.

If smart bettors win, and steam moves tell us what these smart bettors are betting on, then surely we can copy them and win money too. Right? Not quite. Once again there’s some logic linked to this theory, but this theory is not without its flaws.

If you could place the exact same wagers as winning bettors, then of course you’d win money too. Following steam moves doesn’t allow us to do that though. It only gives us some indication of where the smart money is going. It doesn’t tell us EVERYTHING that the smart guys are doing, as their bets don’t always cause steam moves.

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In any case, the whole point here is that their money moves the fixed matches odds and lines. So by the time we’ve seen the moves, it’s usually too late anyway. You can only really take advantage if you see the moves early, and quickly get your bets on at a football betting site or bookmaker that hasn’t made the same adjustments. This is a challenge in itself.

There’s no harm in keeping an eye out for steam moves and trying to work out what the smart bettors are doing. So this theory does have some merit. But any strategy based on steam betting is ultimately going to be limited, for the reasons outlined above.

Sandwich game theory

The sandwich game theory is also based on sound reasoning. It’s something that’s worth taking into account under certain circumstances. Its value is often overrated in our opinion though.

You may already be familiar with the term “sandwich games.” They occur when a team’s schedule gives them a tough game, then an easier one, and then another tough one. The easier game in the middle is defined as the sandwich game. It’s common to see a few of these situations throughout a season, and it’s considered to be reasonably likely that teams will underperform in their sandwich games. The theory is that their focus will be on the more challenging matchups.

Fixed Matches Theories

We understand the logic behind this theory. We even agree with it to some extent, but we also feel that it’s a potentially dangerous theory. It can encourage people to make betting decisions for one single reason, and that’s rarely a good idea. The sandwich game theory is definitely something worth considering, but we’d never recommend going against a team based on this theory alone.

Bounce back fixed match theories

The bounce back theory is very simple. The idea is that you should bet on teams that have just suffered a significant setback, as there’s a good chance they’re going to put in an improved performance the next time they take to the field. For example, a team that has just suffered a blowout is going to be very keen to make amends as soon as possible. So you should back them to win in their following game.

You’re basically looking for teams who are trying to prove themselves.

Once again we understand the logic here. Teams very often do “bounce back” from big losses and other setbacks. A heartbreaker, where a team loses late in the game, can provide great motivation to win the next one. So can losing to a major rival. There are plenty of other examples too.

The problem is, there’s no way of knowing for sure how a team will react to a setback. They might get fired up and improve their performance levels, but they might equally get demoralized and actually perform worse. So you can’t really be certain that backing a team after a setback is the right thing to do.

As with most theories, the bounce back theory is simply one more factor to consider. You should definitely be looking at previous results, and thinking about what impact what they might have on upcoming games, but don’t ever back a team solely because they just got badly beaten. That’s not a good enough reason by itself.

Bye week theory

The bye week theory suggests that games involving a team coming off their bye week can provide good betting opportunities. It’s based on some simple statistical analysis showing that teams have a higher than average win rate in the games they place immediately after their bye week.

This is a solid theory, but you must interpret it correctly. Keeping track of the schedule and studying games involving teams who have just had a week’s rest may enable you to highlight some additional betting opportunities. It will also give you something else to to consider alongside all the other factors. Don’t just start blindly backing teams playing after their bye week though. You still have to analyze the relevant games and assess the likely outcomes. Hope now you have enough information about fixed matches theories.