Paid Source Fixed Matches
Paid Source Fixed Matches
HT FT Fixed Odds Betting
Day: Sunday Date: 17.07.2022
League: NORWAY Eliteserien
Match: Molde – Haugesund
Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.50 Result: 1:0 Lost
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Many people bet intuitively. They rely on what they know or feel about a particular team or player to make an on-the-spot assessment of their chances of success. PAID SOURCE FIXED MATCHES While intuition is reliable at instantly working out if someone is angry with you, it isn’t great with probability judgements and the Halo Effect is one reason why. Read on to learn about the role the Halo Effect plays in making betting decisions.
The Halo Effect
For the majority of people, these descriptions leave a more PAID SOURCE FIXED MATCHES of Alan than of Ben. This is a strange assessment given that their list the characteristics are identical and just present in reverse.
Instead of acknowledging that the only difference is in the order that the data is receive. The lazy side of our mind (often referred to as System 1) seeks a consistency in evaluation in order to quickly build a coherent narrative.
The initial positive trait – Alan is intelligent – inclines us to interpret the latter traits to support this view and vice-versa with envious Ben. This is known as the Halo Effect.
Wxample of fictitious sample of fictitious
What has this got to do with betting ht-ft fixed odds today? Change the example from fictitious men to two soccer teams or tennis players, and the character descriptions to results or performances, PAID SOURCE FIXED MATCHES and it is easy to see how betting judgements are bias by the order in which information is acquired, and the significance of particular performances.
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Kinds
This kind of bias isn’t isolated, people are also susceptible to the Availability Heuristic that leads us to place greater disproportional significance to events/ideas that are easiest to recall. Availability is largely linked to the strength of our emotional response to events, which is greater when they make a more lasting impression e.g. high-scoring games, five-set classics, etc.
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So with knowledge of the Halo Effect and Availability Heuristic, let’s look at some examples within PAID SOURCE FIXED MATCHES where they apply:
The Brazilian soccer team example
The reverence with which Brazil’s national soccer team is held sets them aside from all other national teams, and in the minds of the betting public fixed matches, out of proportion to a truly objective appraisal. It is a fact that the Seleção have won the World Cup more often than any other nation – but their five victories came in two distinct periods 1958-70 and 1994-2002, while at the last three tournaments they failed to reach the final.
Period of success:
Their periods of success starting with the golden age of Pele, Carlos Alberto, Rivelino, etc. have created a ‘Halo’ that skews the perception of all Brazilian teams, which availability bias confirms with the easy recollection of frequently aired wonder-goals, especially from the 1970 tournament in Mexico.
Skills:
Younger generations may be less familiar with events from over 40 years ago but the media perpetuates the idea (confirmation bias) by hammering home the idea that all Brazilian players are super-skilled. This consistency of evaluation creates a coherent narrative. “Brazil has produced many of the world’s most skilful players – therefore all Brazilian players are skilful”.
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Interestingly, the extreme nature of their elimination from the 2014 World Cup, where as hosts and favourites they were humble 7-1 by eventual winners Germany, may actually have been enough to eradicate that historical Halo, or at least dim it a little.
Halo effect explaination:
The Halo Effect also explains why a disproportionate amount of credit is give to famous ex-soccer players who move into management. There is no statistical evidence that being a good player makes you a good manager. Mark Hughes was a great player at Manchester Unite and Chelsea. But expectations of him as a manager have subsequently been set at the same level of achievement. The Halo created by playing exploits leads many clubs, fans and bettors to expect more than is realistic from those individuals when they are picking the team. This subject has gained exposure through the book Moneyball, and film of the same name.
Reverse Halo
The Halo Effect can also work in reverse. If the first impression of your holiday hotel is a broken sign. This can set a negative context biasing all subsequent judgements about your stay. From a PAID SOURCE FIXED MATCHES perspective, a bad performance disproportionally biases future assessments.
After relinquishing a four-shot lead going into the final round of the 2011 US Masters, Rory McIlroy was label a choker and worse by newspaper headlines. Prior to the tournament he was one of the sport’s rising stars, but one dramatic round of 80. So they easily recalled given the visible turmoil of the young golfer (thanks to the Availability Heuristic). They changed all that in many bettors’ eyes. Any bettor able to take a more rounded judgement would have benefited two months later when he won the US Open by eight shots, then in 2012 he won his second major, the US PGA Championship
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Had these events happened in reverse – winning two majors then collapsing in the final round of the Masters – assessments of his future performances would have been more forgiving. This is particularly pertinent when McIlroy historically walked off the course halfway through round two of the Honda Classic with a 7-over par score and in a ‘bad state mentally’. The ‘Halo’ that major success had given subsequently tempered bettors’ opinions of McIlroy’s chances of future success.
Lessons to Learn
Choices
Our intuitive mind is valuable and very powerful, and can often save our lives by perceiving danger. However, it has a real weakness when it comes to statistical assessment. The trick is to force our effortful mind (System 2) into action.
Before making a betting max stake fixed matches choice, it is important to deliberately look for three counter arguments to your face value assessment and employ. As much objective data with as big a sample size as possible, whilst ignoring mainstream media which often seeds simplistic narratives.
Bettors who read about interesting aspects of psychology like the Halo Effect. They may be inspire to the point of sharing their new knowledge, but this doesn’t mean that they can modify there own propensity to place ‘Halos’ on sportsmen or teams. The test is not whether you have learned a new fact but whether your understanding of situations you encounter has evolved.
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PAID SOURCE FIXED MATCHES nfl:
An NFL teaser is commonly a two team parlay where your chosen teams. They gets six extra PAID SOURCE FIXED MATCHES add in your favour to its handicap. So if Dallas were +2 and Pittsburgh were -7.5, your teaser would be a parlay on Dallas +8 and Pittsburgh -1.5. If you are betting at 2.10 (betting $110 to win $100). You need to win at least 47.6% of your teasers to break even. This is the same win percentage need for to break even on normal sides bets. When you lay 2.10 at a traditional bookmaker.
Since both of your selections need to win so that you can cash out. Each individual teaser team needs to cover 72.5% for you to break even (69.0% X 69.0% = 47.6%). So in exchange for those six extra points in your favour. When you buy a teaser you are raising your breakeven point from 47.6% to 69.0% on that one team. If you don’t win that individual leg at least 20%. More with those six points, don’t bother teasing. You are buying something you don’t need.
Mistakes:
A common mistake I see with teasers is teasing a total. There is no total in the NFL or College that when teased six points, raises your win rate 20%. In general, teasing any total is a bad play. Fortunately one of the best ways to play a teaser is to play a handicap that when teased, moves through the key numbers of 3 and 7. Teasing Dallas from +2 to +8 or Pittsburgh from -7.5 to -1.5 are two examples.
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Alternate High & PAID SOURCE FIXED MATCHES
Another tool you can use in conjunction with teasers i. Due to our reduced juice pricing, these potentially allow you to guarantee. Aprofit and hedge out of your position if you win the first leg of your teaser. But have perhaps had a change of heart.
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For instance, if you bet $100 on Dallas +8/Pittsburgh -1.5 and Dallas had already won, you could possibly bet $50 on Pittsburgh’s opponent at +1.5 at 3.50.
With these lines unique to Pinnacle. You can lock in a profit after the first leg of a teaser is play. You might even find situations where you can guarantee a profit no matter what the result. Even before the first game kicks off – with a little line shopping.
PAID SOURCE FIXED MATCHES Although there is a lot more to study. When it comes to teasers, armed with these basics you can find a smarter way to bet courtesy of Pinnacle. If you enjoy that content you may be interest in FixedMatch.Bet. Hope you found this article interested and will coming back for more and more informational articles from us. We aim at helping everyone undertstand fixed matches betting and earn profits through it. Our tips are one of bests and they will surely help you exceed your betting profits. Follow us for more and more tips from experts and earn profits that you want.