Football Fixed Matches Over/Under
Football Fixed Matches Over/Under
Ticket Combo Tips fixed Bets
Day: Monday Date: 18.07.2022
League: NORWAY OBOS-ligaen
Match: Start – Sandnes
Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.50 Result: 1:2 Won
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Accurate winning tips 1×2 betting
Opportunity cost is a useful concept for deciding the best way to maximize football fixed matches Over/Under return on investment from funds. Even profitable bettors should be aware of the potential costs of misallocating resources. Read on to find out more about applying opportunity cost to sports betting.
What is opportunity cost?
Imagine a high school student assessing the merits of attending University. What are the costs of studying the prospective student needs to consider? The initial cost of tuition is the obvious expense but it is not the only one the student must factor in.
In addition to the costs the prospective student incurs during their study. They must also consider the wages and experience they would have gained by working during this time instead. This is the opportunity cost to the student of higher education. Which needs to be weigh against the potential benefits of a university degree.
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This is an important concept in investing. An individual who saves their money in a 1% interest savings account is technically a “profitable” investor given that. And they will have more money at the end of the year than they had at the start.
However, if inflation is at 3% then, in real terms, the investor has lost purchasing power. As the growth in the price of goods has been greater than the savers return on investment (ROI). They would have been better off purchasing their desire goods at the start of the year rather than saving.
Applying opportunity cost to sports betting
How does this concept affect sports bettors? To look at this we will follow four imaginary bettors, all of whom are profitable. In order to simplify this process several (unrealistic) assumptions have been make:
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The bettors have limited initial capital (€100).
They are restrict to one action (no diversification of risk).
They must stake the full amount on each bet (in a real scenario a staking method would be advisable).
Average ROI per bet: Bettor A : 01%, Bettor B: 1%, Bettor C: 2%, Bettor D: 4%
The return on investment indicates each bettor’s level of skill. Bettor A is marginally profitable whilst Bettor D achieves a high return on investment.
Opportunity cost in betting: Outrights vs singles
A common debate amongst bettors is whether tying up funds in long-term outright bets a good strategy or a misallocation of resources. This is essentially a debate about opportunity cost.
Assuming these skilled bettors have an edge on both outright and football fixed matches Over/Under. What expect return on investment would be require to make a bet on a year-long bet on an outright market the optimal choice?
At a 100% expect return on investment. Football fixed matches Over/Under is better off by €89. But even with such a big ROI, the other three bettors will lose out staking on the outright compare to allocating their initial funds to fixed games 1×2 today betting on the 100 singles.
For bettor D to eliminate the opportunity cost of betting on singles with that €100 over the course of the year (whilst the funds otherwise would be tie up in the outright stake). And make a significant profit they would need to stake on an outright bet with an expect return of investment of 5150%.
The higher skill bettors must find an outright offering incredible value to overcome the compounding effect of staking that money on single bets sure odds winning matches.
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Whilst this may offer an argument against staking on outrights. In this simulation our bettors have limit resources and do not need to account for variance. Real bettors could see outright betting as a good way to diversify risk. Certainly, not many bettors would turn down a bet with a 100% expect return on investment.
Football fixed matches Over/Under vs the stock market
Hedge fund managers are assesse by how their returns compare to the general stock market. In simple terms, a hedge fund manager’s skill level is determin by how much their “expertly” select portfolio can beat that of someone who simply purchases every major stock via an index fund.
Warren Buffett calculates stocks grow an average of 6 to 7% annually, so we will use the higher bound 7% growth rate as our average. How do our bettors fare when judge in the same way as hedge fund managers?
At average market growth all of the bettors return better than market profits, so there is no opportunity cost present. However, in a fast-rising market Bettor A makes a slight loss (opportunity cost of €3) whilst the other bettor’s real profits are significantly reduce.
In a falling market it would be possible for even a football fixed matches Over/Under to beat stock market returns, whilst the profitable bettors see a strong performance vs traditional stock investment.
Long-run, all the bettors will be better off wagering on sports instead of investing but. In a one-off scenario, bettor A could incur an opportunity cost during a fast-rising market.
The opportunity cost of betting at inferior odds
As has been demonstrate above, even profitable bets can have opportunity costs. This is especially true if a bettor is not taking the best odds available.
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If the initial ROI of each bettor was with them betting at FixedMatch.Bet margins (2% in this case) then taking the industry average (6%) will obviously lead to lower profits.
This is the opportunity cost of taking football fixed matches Over/Under, a cost that becomes an increasingly important factor as the bettor becomes more profit. Bettor D would incur an opportunity cost of €191 by choosing to bet at the industry average rather than with FixedMatch.Bet.
Taking inferior odds can also be loss-making. A hypothetical bettor with an expect return on investment of 2% (€102 return) over the course of the 100 bets. And at the two percent margin would return only €98 at the six percent level.
In the real world, a bettor profitable to the extent of bettors C and D is likely to place more wagers at higher stakes than simulated here. The effect of taking inferior odds on returns would be even more pronounce in this case.
What should bettors learn from football fixed matches Over/Under?
Of course, skill master bettors are well aware of the importance of taking optimal. And the odds as well as not tying up funds in long-term positions that could be better use elsewhere. However, they are important concepts worth remembering.
Perhaps of most use to bettors is the comparison with the stock market. If Warren Buffett is correct (and history suggests he is), then bettors need to beat stock market returns of 6-7% to ensure they are not incurring an opportunity cost compare to merely investing in an index fund.
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In reality, profitable bettors are likely to find enough value bets to ensure they outperform the stock market. Another big advantage of sports betting is that there is no such thing as a falling market. So there will not be an overnight plunge in bettor’s funds (as long as a football fixed matches Over/Under is follow), nor should irrational actors affect the bettor’s ability to increase his bankroll.
To give a breakdown of the calculations used for the above examples. We can use the simple idea of betting halftime/fulltime fixed games on coin flips. So specifically in this instance the case where a bettor earns an 11% return on investment on €100 worth of bets.
If FixedMatch.Bet were to offer prices on coin flips with their 2% margin applied. And this would result in a price of 1.961 for both heads and tails. On the other hand, with an industry standard margin of 6% this implies a price of 1.887.
In order to achieve an 11% ROI after 100 bets on coin flips (at FixedMatch.Bet odds). This requires the customer to correctly predict;
€111/1.961 ≈ 57 (1)
out of 100 coin flips.
Although, winning these same 57 coin flip bets at an industry standard margin betting company, this results in;
€1 x 57 x 1.887 ≈ €107 (2)
Hence meaning €4 less for the customer despite achieving the same amount of winning bets fixed matches 1×2.
What lessons can be learned from the Football Fixed matches Over/Under
When markets don’t have equal flows of information represented by money staked. They can get out of sync and inefficiencies appear.
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Mayweather vs. Mcgregor style inefficiencies, where over-optimistic backers distort the market, are incredibly rare since sharp money usually dictates the lines. As bettors we are usually looking for odds where the oddsmaker has been pessimistic about the chance of an event occurring.
It is perhaps more practical to look for situations where bookmakers have miscalculated odds initially, and there is not the two-way money flow needed to correct the market.
Perhaps anchoring bias could ensure that bettors have not look too deeply into the reasons behind this and the price has not yet been correct. As Marco says, traders are not necessarily more informed than bettors . So finding isolated cases where markets have not been able to correct themselves could offer value.
The necessity of shorting for market efficiency
So why were Cornwall one of the only parties to bet against a clear bubble with such high expected returns available? After all, Pinnacle’s odds show us how efficient betting markets football matches are (and shorting is just a variant of betting). Surely the market should have corrected itself?
The issue here was the inaccessibility of the shorting option. Unlike a football fixed matches Over/Under where staking is easily accessible to all parties, betting ht-ft fixed odds matches against the housing market was convoluted.