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Day: Friday    Date: 03.10.2025

League: NETHERLANDS Eerste Divisie
Match: Cambuur – FC Emmen
Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.50    Result: ?:?

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In this article Fixed Odds Correct Games level and percentage staking strategies are compared. Which staking method produces the superior expected yield? How do the yield distributions contrast between the two? Read on to find out.

fixedmatch.bet’s Betting Resources has previously compared and contrasted a number of different staking strategies. I’ve looked at the expected profitability and risks of ruin for these strategies. For my latest article I want to compare specifically the two most commonly used plans: level versus percentage staking.

Level staking

With a level staking strategy, all stakes are the same size, regardless of what your Fixed Odds Correct Games are. Some bettors find level staking too inflexible in as much as it takes no account of the probability of winning your bet – or rather the risk of you losing one.

Why, for instance, would you want to risk the same amount of capital on something that has half, or quarter, or an eighth the chance of something else happening? Doesn’t it make more sense to scale stakes so that they are proportional to the risk associated with the bet?

In the short term Fixed Odds Correct Games, such an argument has its merits; over the longer term, perhaps less so. Fixed winning tips 1×2 Betting at longer odds means you are more at the mercy of statistical variance, or luck, both good and bad. More good luck can mean more profit. Unfortunately, the corollary is that more bad luck implies more loss.

However, the longer your betting history is, the smaller that variance becomes. Good and bad luck even out. Readers of my article last month may remember the simple formula I used to estimate the spread (or standard deviation,σ) of possible returns (%) betting n level stakes at ‘fair’ odds of o.

σ=√(o-1)/√n

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Having four times the number of bets will half the statistical spread of possibilities. Betting longer odds increases the spread of possibilities, but it will still decrease with increasing number of bets. 400 bets at odds of 5, for example, will have the same spread of possibilities as 100 bets at odds of 2.

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Betting the same stake for longer odds does imply a greater risk of capital loss on a bet by bet basis. But over the longer term you are not giving up potential profits by reducing those stakes (provided, of course, you are a bettor holding positive expected value).

Staking to win the same profit regardless of the Fixed Odds Correct Games means less profit will be contributed by the winning longer odds, simple by virtue of the fact they win less often. One might then wonder whether it is even worth bothering to bet longer odds at all.

Percentage FIXED ODDS CORRECT GAMES

Percentage or proportional staking calculates stakes as a proportion of your current bankroll; hence they will increase as your bankroll grows after winning, decrease as it shrinks after losing. Advocates of one specific percentage staking plan, the Kelly criterion, argue that it is the most efficient way to grow a bankroll, although it can only achieve this by requiring a rather aggressive attitude towards risk management.

More generally its appeal lies in allowing a winning bettor to grow their bankroll faster than they could by simply betting level stakes. It’s also worth reminding ourselves that, in theory at least, we can’t ever go bust betting percentage stakes, as even if you lost every single bet ht-ft fixed match, you are never committing the whole of your remaining bankroll, only a proportion of it.

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Nevertheless, it is the interplay of losing and winning in sequence that throws up some rather interesting observations when comparing the performance of this money management strategy with level staking, as we shall see.

Distribution of profits for level versus percentage staking

Consider a betting history of 1,000 bets at odds of 2.00 where the bettor holds a 5% expected value (EV) that is the expectation of returning $105 for every $100 wagered. The projections below shows the spread of profits for level stakes (5 units) and percentage stakes (5%) alike from a 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation.

For level staking the spread of possible profits follows the typical bell-shaped normal distribution curve as we would expect. The average (and median) profit is 250 units, which is what we would expect after turning over 5,000 units holding a 5% advantage.

For percentage staking the shape of the distribution is markedly different, and heavily skewed towards the higher profitability end. Again, it’s probably not that surprising, since a lucky performance could see bankrolls and stakes grow exponentially.

I’ve stopped the chart at a profit of 7,000 units simply for clarity, but the largest profit made in the 10,000 runs was nearly 95,000 units. This skew has a significant influence on the average profit. Whilst the median is still 250 (implying about half are less and half are more profitable), the average is 1,120, weighted by a few very large profits that the Monte Carlo simulation delivered.

Look closely at the left-hand side of the histograms. You will see that there are more underachieving outcomes for percentage staking than for level staking. About 21% of them in this simulation were actually unprofitable, compared to only about 5% for level staking.

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Distribution of FIXED ODDS CORRECT GAMES

Instead of comparing profits, let’s now compare yield percentage for the two staking plans. Clearly for a very profitable percentage staking history, the total turnover of stakes will be much greater.

One percentage staking profit, for example, saw a profit of 2,462 units (compared to 440 from level staking), but to achieve that 33,699 units were turned over (compared to 5,000 units for level staking). In fact, in this example the profit over turnover or yield was lower for percentage staking (6.85%) than it was for level staking (8.80%). Is that typical? The next chart shows how all yields were distributed for the full Monte Carlo simulation.

The average yield from level staking was 5.00%. Compare this to the average for percentage staking which was just half this at 2.51%. The chart also further illustrates how many more possible outcomes are unprofitable when fixed matches tips betting percentage stakes compared to betting level stakes.

We can change the simulation parameters, for example different betting odds and different expected values (EV) held by the bettor.

For this article I chose 40 different EV / Odds pairs. To limit further the number of possible parameter combinations I only consider the percentage stake size equivalent to that dictate by full Kelly staking strategy, calculated by EV / Odds -1, where EV is express as a percentage.

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For example, for the scenario already discuss (EV = 5%, Odds = 2.00), the Kelly percentage is 5% / (2.00 – 1). The percentage stakes are shown below for all 40 combinations. For the level stake scenarios, the magnitude of the percentage was used. Thus, for the EV = 3%, odds = 3.00 combination which implies 1.5% stakes sizes, level stakes of 1.5 units were used. MANIPULATED FIXED MATCHES are a good choice for those looking for guaranteed returns.

Percentage stakes sizes for different EV / odds pairs

The next two tables compare the average yields achieved from the Monte Carlo simulations. For level stakes, the yields are in line with expectation, plus or minus a little bit of random noise which to reduce further would have strained my limited computational resources.

In contrast, the yields from percentage staking are generally about half those values. This was truly an unexpected and perhaps unintuitive finding, although the discussion which follows will reveal why it happens.

Probability of unprofitability

Even sharp bettors holding profitable expected value face a non-zero probability of failing to make a profit over a specified betting history. Of course, the law of large numbers means that probability diminishes as their betting history gets longer. Nevertheless, it’s worth considering those probabilities for these simulated 1,000-bet histories for the purposes of comparting level and percentage staking.

The last two tables show the probability of each EV / Odds combination failing to return a profit based on the 10,000 simulation runs.

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Again, as for average yield there will be a little bit of residual random noise, but the broader pattern is clear: you’re always more likely to fail to show a profit betting percentage stakes compared to betting level stakes, no matter what odds you bet or what EV you hold, and sometimes the magnitude of the difference is considerable.

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Probability of not making a profit after 1,000 bets with level stakes

Probability of not making a profit after 1,000 bets with percentage stakes

By way of example, a reasonably sharp handicapper (odds around 2.00) holding a 3% advantage over the bookmaker could expect to be showing losses after 1,000 3-unit bets about 1 in every 6 times. If, instead, they chose to bet 3% stakes, that would rise to nearly 1 in 3.

An explanation: the asymmetry of percentage losses and gains

Why does percentage staking appear to be inferior to level staking, at least in terms of expected yields and the ability to show a profit? The simple explanation is that it takes a bigger percentage growth to recover a previous loss.

Let’s consider the example of even-money betting halftime fulltime fixed matches. Losing a 5% stake drops a 100-unit bankroll to 95 units. To recover that takes a profit of 5/95 or 5.26%, but the percentage staking strategy would only advocate a next bet of 4.75 units and winning it at odds of 2.00 would return the bankroll 99.75. By contrast, the bankroll from level staking would be back at 100 units.

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The problem is the same in reverse. Losing an even-money bet following a previous even-money winner will lose more absolute capital than was previously won. In this example, regardless of whether you win or lose first, your bankroll is going to finish on 99.75, less than what you started with, despite theoretically holding an expected value of 0% for this pair of bets.

More generally, and regardless of the betting odds fixed matches, when you lose it will take longer to recover; when you win it will take less time to regress.

Of course, in purely monetary terms a bettor holding proven profitable expected value will make more profit absolutely than their level stakes counterpart. That, after all, is the point of percentage staking.

Nevertheless, this exercise has been a useful reminder that as with anything in gambling. There is always a trade-off to be had between risk and reward Fixed Odds Correct Games.

In return for a more aggressive acceleration of profits which percentage staking offers. One must accept a greater likelihood of doing considerably worse than expectation (and potentially losing money). Simply because of the asymmetric nature of the distribution of Fixed Odds Correct Games possible outcomes.

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Day: Saturday    Date: 19.10.2024

League: NORWAY Eliteserien
Match: Molde – Sandefjord
Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.50    Result: 0:1 Lost

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Real Source Of Fixed Matches: Serie A Upcoming Encounters and Forecasts 2024

Bologna against Parma: Forecast and Gambling Insights

This Sunday, Bologna hosts Parma at the iconic Estadio Renato Dall’Ara for a highly anticipated Serie A encounter. Fabio Pecchia’s Parma side, fresh from their struggles, will be aiming for an elusive win over Bologna, a feat they haven’t achieved since a 2-1 victory back in December 2012. Despite their long-standing rivalry, Bologna have consistently come out on top, leaving Parma eager to rewrite the script. You can also rewrite the script to turn your losing bets into winning ones by investing in the finest Real Source Of Fixed Matches that money can buy. So contact us today on Telegram or email to get premium access!

Bologna is entering this match with injuries from a 2-0 loss in the UEFA Champions League against English powerhouse Liverpool at Anfield. It was a frustrating evening for Vincenzo Italiano’s squad, who were denied their first European win of the season. However, their focus now shifts back to domestic matters, where their Serie A campaign has been a mixed bag. With just one win from six games so far, the club finds itself with seven points, sitting in sixth place which is only marginally ahead of Parma, who are seventh with five points.

Last Monday, they suffered a narrow 3-2 defeat at home against Cagliari, which underscored their defensive frailties. Pecchia’s men have now gone winless in five of their six Serie A matches this season, losing three and drawing two. Their only victory came in a 2-1 triumph over AC Milan at the Ennio Tardini Stadium back in August, with goals from Dennis Man and Matteo Cancellieri giving them a much-needed lift.

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When looking at the historical clashes between these two teams, Bologna clearly holds the upper hand. They’ve emerged victorious in 13 of their last 30 meetings with Parma, with their rivals managing only five wins. The remaining 12 encounters ended in draws. Bologna has not tasted defeat in their last nine fixtures against Pecchia’s men, boasting four wins and five draws since Parma’s last triumph over them in December 2012.

Parma’s away form, however, shows some promise. The team has managed to lose only one of their 10 competitive away games, securing three wins and six draws since February. This statistic might give Parma fans a glimmer of hope as they head to Bologna. On the flip side, Bologna has been solid at home, remaining unbeaten in their last eight competitive matches on their turf, though they have a tendency to settle for draws, with seven of those games ending in stalemates. Their last home defeat came in March, when they lost 1-0 to Inter Milan.

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Real Source Of Fixed Matches: Bologna against Parma Forecast

After their disheartening loss to Liverpool, Bologna will be keen to get back to winning ways and restore some confidence in their squad. The home advantage certainly plays in their favor, and given Parma’s patchy form, Pecchia’s side might find it difficult to secure a positive result.

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With Parma’s inability to consistently find winning form in the league, it’s hard to see them pulling off a surprise victory here. The struggles in defense that were exposed against Cagliari are likely to be capitalized on by Bologna, who, despite their own slow start, have shown enough resilience to outlast their rivals.

Predicted Scoreline: Bologna 3-1 Parma

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Betting Tips

  • Result: Bologna to win. With Bologna’s superior record in this fixture and Parma’s shaky form, it seems highly likely that the hosts will come out on top.
  • Over 2.5 goals: Yes. The last five meetings between these two sides have consistently seen at least three goals scored, so it’s reasonable to expect a similar outcome.
  • Both teams to score: Yes. Both teams have found the back of the net in four of their last five encounters, making this a probable outcome.

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Fiorentina against AC Milan: Match Preview and Forecasts

Another captivating Serie A clash this weekend sees Fiorentina locking horns with an impressive AC Milan side at the Stadio Artemio Franchi. Both teams have talent in abundance, but they find themselves in contrasting forms, making this an intriguing contest.

Fiorentina currently occupies the 12th spot in the Serie A standings and has struggled to maintain consistency this season. Their most recent match ended in a goalless stalemate against Empoli, and Vincenzo Italiano’s side will be keen to step up their game this weekend.

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AC Milan, meanwhile, have been flying high, sitting comfortably in third place. Despite a 1-0 defeat to Bayer Leverkusen in their last outing, the Rossoneri have been in strong form domestically. They’ll see this fixture as a chance to get back on track and solidify their position at the top end of the table.

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Real Source Of Fixed Matches: Fiorentina against AC Milan Head-to-Head

Historically, AC Milan holds the upper hand in this fixture. The Rossoneri have won 22 of their last 48 meetings with Fiorentina. Meanwhile, La Viola has claimed victory just 14 times. Furthermore, Milan has won 78 of their 168 Serie A clashes with Fiorentina, a record bettered only against AS Roma in the competition’s history.

Milan has also enjoyed significant success in recent encounters, winning six of their last eight matches against Fiorentina in Serie A. Last season, Milan did the double over their Florentine rivals, adding further pressure on the hosts going into this weekend’s fixture.

Interestingly, the last 13 meetings between these two teams at the Stadio Artemio Franchi have been evenly matched, with both sides winning four games each. Fiorentina’s strong home form, which has seen them go unbeaten in 10 of their last 11 home games in Serie A, could give them a fighting chance.

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Fiorentina against AC Milan Forecast

AC Milan has demonstrated their capacity to overcome a slow start to the season and are looking like strong contenders once again. Christian Pulisic has been in stellar form for the Rossoneri and will likely play a key role in this fixture.

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Fiorentina, for all their struggles, remains a formidable force at home. Going up against a strong AC Milan team will definitely pose a difficult challenge. While both teams are capable of pulling off a result, the most likely outcome seems to be a closely contested draw.

Predicted Scoreline: Fiorentina 1-1 AC Milan

Real Source Of Fixed Matches: Betting Tips

  • Result: Draw. Both teams are fairly evenly matched, and Fiorentina’s strong home form could see them hold off Milan’s attacking prowess.
  • Over 2.5 goals: No. While both teams are capable of scoring, this game might be more conservative, with fewer goals.
  • AC Milan to score first: Yes. Milan has been quick off the mark this season, and they are likely to find the net first.
  • Christian Pulisic to score: Yes. Pulisic has been one of Milan’s standout performers and will be looking to add to his goal tally.

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Juventus against Cagliari: A Battle of Contrasting Fortunes

Juventus and Cagliari are set to face off at the Allianz Stadium on Saturday. It promises to be another exciting Serie A fixture. Both teams have experienced wildly different starts to the season. The result of this match could further highlight the gulf between them.

Cagliari currently sits in 16th place in the Serie A standings, with performances that have left much to be desired. However, their recent 3-2 victory over Parma will give them some confidence heading into this clash.

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Juventus, on the other hand, is in second place and has been one of the strongest teams in the league this season. They come into this match fresh from a thrilling 3-2 win over RB Leipzig in the UEFA Champions League. They will be eager to replicate that result in Serie A.

Real Source Of Fixed Matches: Juventus against Cagliari Head-to-Head

Juventus has a dominant record against Cagliari, winning 26 of their last 37 encounters. The Sardinian side has managed only three victories against the Turin giants, a fact that underlines Juventus’ superiority.

Juventus has also won 12 of their last 14 Serie A clashes with Cagliari. They have consistently scored at least two goals per game. At home, Juventus has been particularly formidable. They have won their last seven matches against Cagliari at the Allianz Stadium. Five of those wins were accompanied by clean sheets.

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Juventus against Cagliari Forecast

Juventus boasts a talented squad and has been rock-solid defensively this season. Dusan Vlahovic has been leading the line with expertise. He will be looking to add to his impressive goal tally this weekend.

Cagliari, meanwhile, is still finding its feet and has struggled to compete with the top teams in Serie A. It’s difficult to envision anything other than a straightforward win for the Bianconeri, given Juventus’ strong squad and home-field advantage.

Predicted Scoreline: Juventus 2-0 Cagliari

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Real Source Of Fixed Matches: Betting Tips

  • Result: Juventus to win. Juventus is in excellent form and should have too much quality for Cagliari.
  • Over 2.5 goals: No. A more controlled Juventus performance is likely to result in fewer goals.
  • Juventus to keep a clean sheet: Yes. Juventus’ defensive record suggests they’re capable of shutting out Cagliari.
  • Dusan Vlahovic to score: Yes. The Serbian forward has been in fine form and is likely to find the back of the net again.