Best Odds Fixed Bets Matches
Best Odds Fixed Bets Matches
Combo ticket 100% sure fixed bets
Day: Friday  Date: 12.08.2022
League: AUSTRIA 2. Liga
Match: Admira – Austria Vienna II
Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.50Â Â Result: 3:2 Won
WhatsApp support:Â +43 681 10831491
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Swap Equivalent:
Recently, I defined a useful quantity for serious bettors called the âSwap Equivalentâ .That help you Best Odds Fixed Bets Matches figure that out. The purpose of it is to calculate the relationship between the Expected Value (EV). To your risky positions and the corresponding Certainty Equivalents (CE). Multiply the EV of your position by the Swap Equivalent and you get the Certainty Equivalent (i.e., the amount of cash in your pocket you should be indifferent to having instead of your open bet). But, beyond that important conversion, you can use it to calculate the Cost of Variance.
For most people, the idea of variance is murky and mysterious. But for sharp sports bettors, it represents the inevitable ups and downs in your profits. On the way to the pot of gold at the end of the long run. Thing is, itâs not just an annoyance that must be endured to realize your theoretical return on investment (ROI). It actually has a cost. How can that be? Because if it didnât, then your Certainty Equivalent for any existing bet would be the same. As its Expected Value at the present time. And Iâve written several previous articles explaining that theyâre not the same.
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We can define the actual cost of your variance (CoV):
As the difference between your EV and your CE. And even though itâs typically a tiny per cent of your bankroll for individual bets. Over the long run it can add up to a lot of profit. Letâs use equations to represent the Swap Equivalent. We can say that both of these are true:
CE = s * EV
CoV = EV – CE
We can combine them to see that the true Cost of Variance is your EV times (1 â the Swap Equivalent):
CoV = EV – CE = EV – s * EV
CoV = EV * (1-s)
Example of Best Fixed matches predictions:
Say sportsbook XYZ has a line on todayâs Diamondbacks-Rockies baseball. The game of Dâbacks +130/Rockies -150 (or Dâbacks 2.30/Rockies 1.60 in decimal odds). Based on the lines at Best Odds Fixed Bets Matches. You estimate the Rockies have exactly a 60% chance to win. Theoretically, you could bet on the Rockies at sportsbook XYZ and have a net EV of 0 (i.e., the Expected Value of your bet. That is exactly the same as the value of the money that you bet). In fact, you might think that after making this same neutral EV bet over and over that things will eventually even out, and thatâs just as good as keeping the money in your pocket.
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But these numbers donât paint the whole picture. They only tell us whatâs going on along one dimension of your betting winning tips football matches canvas: the value dimension. Thereâs a whole other dimension that affects the outcome for us: risk. If you bet anything at all on the Rockies, regardless of your EV, you put money at risk and you will incur some variance to win it back. What does the variance cost you? Well, letâs see.
Calculation:
Say that you have a bankroll of $1,000, and because youâre not losing any EV, you decide to go ahead and bet $50 on the Rockies. Youâll win 60% of the time (returning $83.33) and lose 40% of the time (returning nothing). The expected value of your bankroll after the game is:
0.6 * $83.33 + 0.4 * $0 + $950 = $50 + $950 = $1000
But whatâs the Swap Equivalent for your ticket once youâve made the bet? We can calculate it like so:
- s = ((1 + w) ^ p – 1) / pw
- s = ((1 + 0.088) ^ 0.6 – 1) / (0.6 * 0.088)
- s = (1.052 – 1) / 0.053
- s = 0.985 or 98.5%
Where:
w = payout of your bet as a percentage of your Best Odds Fixed Bets Matches
p = probability that your bet wins (in this example, itâs 60%)
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Your payout, w, will be $83.33/$950 = 0.088, since after you make the bet your remaining bankroll is $950. So while the EV of your ticket is $50, your CE is only ($50 * 98.5%) or $49.25. Now we can show that the cost of the variance you incurred is:
- CoV = EV * (1 – s)
- CoV = $50 * (1 – 0.985)
- CoV = $50 * 0.015
- CoV = $0.75
A slippery slope for best fixed matches predictions
That may seem like a trivial amount, but if you were to make this bet over and over. You would cost yourself a little bit in theoretical growth each time and most likely eventually go bust. In fact, in a simulation of making this bet 10,000 times. The bankroll went bust 81.6% of the time (a plot of five typical simulation runs is shown below).
To think about it more intuitively, figure out what your bankroll would be in the case. Where you win vs. The case where you lose. If you win, your bankroll will be $1033, so the next time you bet $50. It only represents 4.8% of your roll. On the other hand, if you lose then your bankroll will be only $950, and your next bet of $50 will represent 5.3% of that. So, you end up betting a smaller fraction of your bankroll next time whenever you win and a larger fraction whenever you lose â with that small difference eventually snowballing into huge chunks of your remaining roll when you go on a downswing. This is not a formula for making a fortune, or even for breaking even.
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How To Fix:
You may believe you can fix that problem by staking proportionally â by betting 5% of your current bankroll instead of $50 each time, Â youâll bet more when you win and less when you lose, and then it will all even out. Plus, since you never bet 100% of your bankroll, you can never go broke, right? Thatâs a good BEST FIXED MATCHES PREDICTIONS, to be sure. But does it hold water?
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Letâs talk about going âbrokeâ first. While itâs true that you technically can never lose your whole bankroll with proportional staking, how would you feel if you were down to your last $10? It would probably feel a lot like you were broke. So letâs run another simulation where you bet 5% of your bankroll under the same terms as before, except that if you dip below $10 youâre considered broke. How does this simulation turn out?
Even worse. Because youâre betting secure fixed odds so much more after you go on an upswing, your later downswings are much steeper, even if you start by getting lucky (which is probably the only way you donât go broke after 10,000 bets). This way, you typically see a result similar to that shown in the chart below (with the Y-axis shown on a log scale for clarity), and go broke more than 88% of the time:
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It shouldnât be much of a surprise. Given a bet percentage that big, and with no edge, your Expected Growth (EG) for making that bet once is -0.083%. That may not sound like a lot, but after 5,600 bets, you would expect to see your $1k bankroll whittled down to below $10 on average. If you do a calculation of your expected ROI for the same odds, but with a 3.3% edge, youâll find that your full Kelly fraction is 5% for fix ht-ft matches football betting on the Rockies and your EG is +0.083%. That’s exactly equal and opposite to the -EG you get in my example, which means that you should be just as sad to make the neutral EV bet as you would be happy to make a bet with a 3.3% edge there.
What Mistakes made:
Now, this isnât to say that betting on neutral EV lines is the worst mistake you can make, or that itâs as bad as randomly betting on a market with a 4% margin or more. But, when you donât have an Best Odds Fixed Bets Matches, you shouldnât bank on your results evening out to equal your mathematical EV. Your focus should be on only putting as much of it at risk as the theoretical rewards merit.
If, instead of an average punter, you were Jeff Bezos and had a bankroll of $100 Billion, then the Swap Equivalent for your ticket would be essentially 100%, so there would be no economic cost for your gamble. Your Swap Equivalent and Cost of Variance equations would look like this:
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- s = ((1 + w) ^ p – 1) / pw
- s = ((1 + 0.00000000083) ^ 0.6 – 1) / (0.6 * 0.00000000083)
- s â (1.0000000005 – 1) / 0.0000000005
- s = 1 or 100% CoV = EV * (1 – s) CoV = 50 * (1 – 1) CoV = $0
Conclusion
Once you understand that variance has a real cost, itâs easier to understand why you shouldnât simply make your focus all about finding +EV bets. And ignoring -EV or neutral ones. The risk of the variance is costing you money, like a fee or commission when trading stocks, so you can get a Best Odds Fixed Bets Matches benefit by reducing risk. Sometimes that means fix ht-ft matches betting less, to begin with, but even if you stake bets correctly (at the optimal size or less) there are many situations where the EV of your bet changes and outpaces the certainty equivalent by a noticeable amount.
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In these spots, hedging your risk (by betting the other side at a low-margin bookmaker like Best Odds Fixed Bets Matches, or trading out of some or all of your position on an exchange) acts as an insurance policy. And, if the cost of that policy is less than the cost of your variance, then buying it is the more profitable. Hope this article was beneficial for you and you were able to get answers to your queries regarding fixed matches betting. Keep coming back for more such informational articles and expand your fixed matches betting profits.