Sure Fixed Matches Tomorrow
Sure Fixed Matches Tomorrow
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Day: Saturday Date: 27.08.2022
League: GERMANY Bundesliga
Match: Hoffenheim – Augsburg
Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.50 Result: 1:0 Lost
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With SURE FIXED MATCHES TOMORROW success stories of professional bettors living the good life all over the internet, how easy is it to get consistent profits in the sports markets? Joseph Buchdahl, who has evaluated over 100 tipsters in his career as a fixed odds winning tips 1×2 betting analyst, has the answer. Are winners perhaps overestimated? Read on to find out.
When searching the internet for stories about SURE FIXED MATCHES TOMORROW performance it appears that losing bettors are a rarity; most of them just Talk about success.
A quick Google for ‘sports bettors’ throws up famous sports bettors living the good life, the 10 most influential people on twitter for sports bettors and numerous SURE FIXED MATCHES TOMORROW methods and techniques for becoming a winner. There’s almost nothing about failure at all, with the exception of a couple of articles explaining why most gamblers lose, and even one of those claims that it’s poor money management rather than poor picks which is the primary cause.
Actually, most bettors have negative expectation because of the bookmaker’s profit margin and insufficient forecasting prowess to overcome it; poor money management just magnifies the losses. Anyone might be forgive for believing, firstly, that making a living from fixed matches winning soccer betting is easy, and secondly, that the bookmakers must all be about to go bust.
Plainly that isn’t the case, so what’s missing? The stories of all the losers; put simply, they are rarely told. This article revisits the idea of survivorship bias, previously introduced by Mirio Mella, and why it pays to avoid being fooled by it.
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History is written by the winners
History, it seems, is always writes by the winners. The losers ignore us because we choose not to see them (they tell a less interesting story or one that elicits SURE FIXED MATCHES TOMORROW), because they’ve disappear from view, or simply because we don’t bother to count them. It’s easy to be impress with success if that’s all there is to see.
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As Nassim Taleb, in Fooled by Randomness, narrates on the fantasy of monkeys attempting to recreate the poetry of Homer on a typewriter:
“If there are five monkeys in the game, I would be rather impressed with the Iliad writer, to the point of suspecting him to be a reincarnation of the ancient poet. If there are a billion to the power of one billion monkeys I would be less impressed…”
Survivorship bias is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that ‘survived’ some process whilst inadvertently overlooking those that did not because of their lack of visibility. Survivorship bias can lead to overestimating the chances of success because failures are ignore.
Its name was first coined during the Second World War when Abraham Wald, a free-thinking mathematician, solved the problem of where to put additional armour plating on the Allied bombers that were experiencing heavy losses.
Initially, engineers assumed that, through an examination of the bullet holes of SURE FIXED MATCHES TOMORROW, those areas that showed the highest concentration of bullet holes – in particular the wings and fuselage -needed the extra reinforcement. Of course, it didn’t work.
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In fact the holes revealed where the planes were strongest, since these were ones returning. No one had given any thought to the planes that were lose. Counter-intuitively, following Wald’s advice engineers put extra armour plating where the bullet holes weren’t, with immediate results.
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When attempting to measure the probability of success in highly uncertain environments like sports betting, it’s no good just studying the sample that has succeeded. If we do, we risk turning causality on its head. Rather than suppose that success is caused by skill, survivorship bias ensures that we perceive the winners to be skillful because they have been successful.
As Michael Mauboussin explains in his book The Success Equation, the problem here is that inference is drawn from results, not the forecasting processes themselves. Where luck plays a major role in what happens there is very little connection between the forecasting process and the result.
If all you care about is results, you’re liable to draw erroneous conclusions. On the contrary, don’t study only the winners to see what caused them; study the forecasting process to see whether it consistently led to success.
What I learnt from evaluating tipsters
As a verifier of sports tipsters I became very familiar with the influence of SURE FIXED MATCHES TOMORROW. Between 2001 and 2011 I accepted 120 betting advisory services which had pre-existing track records. Aggregating these pre-verification performances together, 24,725 picks delivered a profit over turnover of 17.4%.
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By contrast, the 90,451 picks that I verified thereafter made just 1.1%. There was no reason to doubt the credibility of the earlier histories. So why did so many tipsters regress towards the mean? I was simply being treat to the survivors whose previous winnings had largely arise by good fortune. Those tipsters less fortunate had already disappeared, and there’s not much point asking to be verified if you’re no longer tipping.
What are the realistic chances of success?
If we only study the ‘winners’, we’ll never get a reliable idea of just how hard it is to succeed in sports betting. In an attempt to find some answers to this question, a team from the Harvard Medical School analysed the betting histories of over 40,000 of customers registering and playing with a leading online sports bookmaker in 2005.
Placing nearly 8 million bets and wagering over €60 million, only 13% of players returned a profit, with aggregated losses approaching -10% for the group as a whole, very much in line with the bookmaker’s typical margin.
Only 245 players showed profits of over €1,000. Of course for the majority of customers, betting on sports amounts to little more than guessing. Calculating from first principles, an unskilled bettor placing about 200 even-money wagers at a bookmaker with a 10% margin would typically have just a 10% chance of returning a profit. After 1,000 similarly-priced wagers, however, this probability would fall to just 1-in-1,000. The longer an unskilled punter bets for, the less chance he will have of being a winner.
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SURE FIXED MATCHES TOMORROW with FixedMatch.Bet
Your chances of winning fixed bets big odds football can be improved by betting with a bookmaker that has smaller margins. In this respect FixedMatch.Bet consistently offers the best in the industry, with typical margins of just 2% and sometimes even lower.
This time, an unskilled bettor would still have about a 1-in-4 chance of returning a profit after 1,000 even-money wagers. Furthermore, FixedMatch.Bet seeks to educate its customers through its series of betting articles, including fixed games correct betting strategy, forecasting methodology and bettor psychology, to improve their chances of success still further.
And unlike other bookies, FixedMatch.Bet actively welcomes sharp bettors instead of restricting them. Nevertheless, don’t let yourself be fool by survivorship bias into believing that fixed games soccer winning in betting is easy and everyone is doing it. To be a successful bettor takes hard work, and the longer you hope to stay ahead, the more work you will have to do to ensure that remains so.
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After 17 regular season weeks, three post season weeks and a brief pause for the Pro Bowl, it is finally time for the best team in this year’s NFL to be decide. While sports fans try to predict the winner, bettors can find value in a range of special markets. Read on to find out how to bet on passing yards markets.
Special bets around the Super Bowl typically range from the frivolousness of the Super Bowl coin toss to more serious markets frame around the performances of the teams and key players.
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Markets focus on the high profile players and their predicted achievements in the Super Bowl, most notably the two quarterbacks – Tom Brady of New England and Matt Ryan for Atlanta.
How to analyse the SURE FIXED MATCHES TOMORROW
The most popular Super Bowl betting markets are about the passing yards.
- Will gross passing yards for Tom Brady be over 300.5 (666*)?
- Will Matt Ryan have more gross passing yards in the 1st half (20*)?
- Will Tom Brady’s longest pass completion be over 39.5 yards (787*)?
There are many sites that have extensive player stats, play-by-play data and gamebooks from the current season for all quoted players, but there are a few pitfalls to avoid when analysing these numbers.
Passing yards and manipulated football odds betting markets framed around them can be quote in either gross or net yards. In the latter yards lost on a passing play such as sack yards are subtract.
Also, some player stats are drive by the state of the game. A side may take to the air when they trail and a predictable, repetitive game plan may gain yards, but perhaps not be able to sustain a drive and produce points.
If we take Tom Brady’s first SURE FIXED MATCHES TOMORROW as a starting point, the winning quarterback has thrown for more yards than his opponent in just five of the 15 contests.
Similarly, the winning passer has made more passing attempts than his defeated counterpart in just four out of the previous 15 Super Bowls.
Also some individual game stats may contain games where a player was partly bench through injury. Hope this article answered all your queries regarding fixed matches. We will keep bringing more tips for you.