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Bet Prediction 100% Sure
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Day: Monday Date: 22.08.2022
League: ITALY Serie A
Match: AS Roma – Cremonese
Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.50 Result: 1:0 Lost
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The NFL is going through Bet Prediction 100% Sure an analytics revolution and at the forefront of it is the emergence of Expected Points Added (EPA). This article looks at the upside – and downside – of EPA in an effort to get you familiar with the statistic you will be seeing more of in this season than in any season before.
What is Expected Points Added?
The most common NFL statistic is yards gain. Since the National Football League was found 100 years ago, yards gain has been track for every game.
- How many rushing yards did a team gain?
- How many passing yards did a team gain?
- What was the difference in total yards?
The problem with yards gain is that the metric is flaw as time remaining and game state will dictate the play calling of a team. For example, a team leading by multiple scores fixed matches is more likely to play conservatively late in a game. And sacrifice yards in exchange for time off the clock. Any team trailing tends to play more aggressively, and will be more willing to increase risk in exchange for yards gain. Fixed matches added was create to address the misleading nature of yards gained by putting value on down and distance as well as field position.
For example, a gain of five yards on a 3rd down and 10, and a gain of five yards on 3rd down and 3. They will both register as +5 in yards gain. However, the five yards gain with three yards to go is more Bet Prediction 100% Sure than the five yards gained with 10 yards to go. As it results in a first down and extends the drive.
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Another example would be two plays that gain equal yards in equal situations. For example, if a team runs plays on two different series on 1st down and 10 that each gain four yards. The second play of each series results in the same situation of 2nd down and 6.
With expected points added, depending on field position. The success of the play will be grade differently. A gain of four on first down from a team’s own 30-yard line is much less than gain of four on first down from an opponent’s 15-yard line.
How is Expected Points Added calculated
Calculating expect points added is base on next points score for all plays. By adding up the next points score for and against the offensive team. The net point advantage can be determine for any down and distance.
For example, if a team runs a play on 1st and 10 from their own 20-yard line. The value of 1st and 10 from their own 20 is +0.4 points. If a team runs the football fixed match single bet and gains 30 yards for 1st and 10 from midfield the next play from the 50-yard line is worth +2.0 points.
The difference between +0.4 and +2.0 is 1.6 points. Which means that play from the 20-yard line had an expect point added value of 1.6 points. That point value will then be assign to the players involve in the play.
The easiest way to access EPA data is to use Bet Prediction 100% Sure which is a library built for the programming language of R. And scrapes NFL play-by-play data.
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On Pinnacle there is also a wealth of resources.
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When expressed as expect points added per game and plotted by offence and defense combined, the metric can be quite predictive of success in the league.
Last year the teams that finished with positive EPA per game on offence and defense included the Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Chargers, New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams – each of which made the playoffs and two of which played for the Super Bowl.
Looking at offence alone, the top three teams were Kansas City, New Orleans and Los Angeles Rams who topped the league for most wins.
Expected Points Added can be use as a fixed matches winning bets tool for talent within a roster. Each player who participated in a play will be assign an EPA value.
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Pinnacle’s great odds and low margins cannot be rival! When assessing replacement level talent or the contribution of individual players to their team, looking at EPA can identify players which the market over or under values.
For example, Andy Dalton had an EPA per drop back of 0.47 in 2018. Once he was injury replacement Jeff Driskel and an EPA per drop back of only 0.35. The difference of 0.12 EPA per drop back is a great way to evaluate replacement level talent.
Expected Points Added can also be used to grade the effectiveness of NFL play calling on a team by team basis. For example, in 2018 the average passing play in the league was worth 0.05 EPA per play.
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In comparison, the average rushing play was worth -0.06 EPA per play. While most NFL data will point towards passing being more efficient than running in almost all cases, it is important to note when teams run the fixed matches – and how frequently.
Downside of Expected Points Added
There are many parallels between Expect Points Add in football bets fixed odds 1×2 and Expected Goals (xG) in soccer betting fixed matches 1×2. The biggest one is what the data does not tell you.
With Expect Goals in soccer fixed odds matches, it tells you nothing about the defenders and the goalkeeper. A penalty kick take from the spot results historically in 0.77 expected goals. But that number can change dramatically based on which keeper is in Bet Prediction 100% Sure.
With the NFL being so matchup-base. Where schedule difficulty is of the utmost importance in betting the league, using EPA week to week in betting can be misleading.
The initial reaction for many people seeing EPA for the first time is to back teams that are underperforming and fade teams that are over performing. Without accounting for the strength of opponent, bettors could end up making poor decisions.
The measure of expect points is linear. However, because winning a game by any score line proves equally valuable, teams will intentionally sacrifice yards in exchange for time as mention above.
The baseline for expect points is calculate on game situations in the first and third quarter where the clock will not be of influence, and only when the game is within ten points, to best account for Bet Prediction 100% Sure tendencies.
As the calculation of EPA depends on the difference between down and distance, unusual down and distances prove to be extremely noisy.
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What does the future look like for Expected Points Added?
There will be more expect points allow discussion in 2019 than any season prior. And I have no doubt that the process will be refine and develop into something useful in the future.
In its current state, I see much more value in individual player evaluation. Especially for depth – than I do team performance and market projection.
Looking back on the trajectory of expect goals. As more and more data became available, innovation was quick to follow. Expected Goals now dictates the movement of many soccer leagues around the world fixed matches 1×2 on a match by match basis.
Considering how much recreational influence there is in the NFL betting markets. It is unlikely that EPA will have a noticeable impact on NFL markets in the immediate future. But the foundation it provides for creativity is very exciting with Bet Prediction 100% Sure.
It is interesting to note that, according to Dunning and Kruger, elite level performers tend to underestimate their own ability. And those who struggle will overestimate their ability. It might be an interesting exercise to think where you might fit on the above graph if the test score was based on betting skill.
Confidence is always going to be a part of betting. It will impact what we bet on, when we bet, and how much we bet. The important thing for bettors is to always remember the impact that confidence can have. It can be a good thing, providing us with perseverance to reach an end goal, but it can also cloud our judgement.
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Confidence can contribute to many biases that we find in the fixed odds 1×2 betting market. The majority of bettors may not be aware of the influence these biases have. Some will acknowledge them and work to eliminate their influence on their own decisions. Very few, however, will invest time into identifying the true cause of these biases. And be able to take advantage of them and the valuable betting opportunities they provide.
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You can add more excitement and bigger potential payouts to your sports betting experience by combining moneyline bets into parlays.
Instead of placing a $100 moneyline bet on the New York Giants (-130) for a potential payout of $176.92, you could combine the Giants’ moneyline with the Cleveland Browns’ moneyline (-140) for a potential payout of $303.29 on the same $100 bet.
Parlays aren’t limited to one type of bet in one game or one sport; you can combine Bet Prediction 100% Sure with point-spread odds, over/under total odds fixed matches, and more across one or multiple games in one or multiple sports.