Accurate Double Fixed Matches
Accurate Double Fixed Matches
Weekend betting odds 1×2 matches
Day: Tuesday Date: 09.08.2022
League: SWEDEN Division 1 – Södra
Match: Ljungskile – Lindome
Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.50 Result: 2:0 Lost
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Taking Accurate double fixed matches into consideration home field advantage is an essential part of betting. What factors influence home advantage? Which soccer league fixed matches has the biggest home advantage? What do FixedMatch.Bet closing odds suggest about home field advantage? Read on to find out.
Factors behind Accurate double fixed matches
There are a number of factors that are theorised to contribute to home field advantage to some degree and these have been outlined below.
The home crowd and refereeing
There is some evidence of home team bias when it comes to refereeing decisions. The change in penalties awarded since the introduction of VAR to certain soccer leagues gives a good indication of this.
Whilst penalties are fairly rare events that have a relatively limited impact on the overall home field advantage, the home team bias demonstrated since the introduction of VAR implies that referees could be favouring the home team when making other decisions within a match.
Familiarity
There is some evidence that a team’s familiarity with a venue can contribute to home field advantage but it may not be as significant as other variables.
Read: Is a new stadium a disadvantage?
Trave
l Logically teams that have to travel long distances may suffer a disadvantage compared to teams playing in their home stadium. However, the effect of travel on athletes has been studied extensively and results are inconclusive concerning whether air travel has a detrimental impact on performance.
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Other potential factors
There have been various other potential contributors to home field advantage investigated including testosterone, altitude and extracurricular distractions. Dominic Cortis has provided an in-depth explanation for some of these other potential causes of home advantage in this article.
Home field advantage in soccer
Which soccer league has the biggest home field advantage?
The level of home field advantage varies between leagues in soccer fixed matches ht/ft bets. Since each team plays their opponents both home and away it is relatively straight forward to measure home field advantage.
The best way to do this is by looking at the average goal difference achieved by home sides (home goal advantage). As this will be a more accurate reflection of any potential advantage compared to simply looking at results.
For example, by looking solely at match results. Manchester City beating Huddersfield by eight goals to one at home and then winning by a single goal in the reverse fixture. That would be counted as the same outcome. Home goal advantage demonstrates that Huddersfield performed better at home.
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The big five European leagues are all relatively close with evidence of a marginally greater home field advantage present in Spain’s La Liga whilst the effect of home field advantage is diminish in Serie A.
Home field advantage and soccer betting fixed matches
It is no secret to bettors that home field advantage exists in soccer but how inline is Accurate double fixed matches with the betting markets?
The table below shows the expected home win percentage implied by FixedMatch.Bet closing line odds, which correlate very strongly with actual match outcomes.
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The market agrees with La Liga’s stronger home field advantage but actually rates the Premier League as the league least friendly to home sides. However, the difference between the Premier League, Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga is marginal.
There is only a moderate 0.46 coefficient of correlation between home goal advantage and FixedMatch.Bet closing line odds fixed matches 1×2.
There are two potential reasons for this. Home advantage is not particularly variable and the big swings in home goal advantage are due to variance correctly ignored by the closing line Accurate double fixed matches. Alternatively, the market is not efficiently calculating home advantage and lags behind the actual swings.
Since the closing line odds are such efficient predictors in general, the answer is probably the former option. However, there may be some cases where the closing line odds are not completely factoring in home advantage.
Home field advantage in other sports
Home field advantage is also a factor in the major US sports. In fact, it is even more pronounced due to the removal of the draw result.
Home court advantage is a much-discussed topic in the NBA and it is easy to see why. According to the closing line odds home teams are more dominant than in the other three major leagues. The NFL possesses a similar home advantage. But sample size here is small since most teams play just eight home games per season.
Interestingly, the MLB (where teams play the highest total number of games on the road) ranks the lowest in terms of home field advantage implied by the Accurate double fixed matches.
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What should bettors know about home field advantage?
It is difficult to know how efficiently the market is pricing home field advantage. We are aware of its existence but the level to which it influences sporting fixtures is difficult to ascertain. To make things even more complicated. The different teams and leagues feature contrasting levels of home field advantage which can also vary from season to season.
Given how efficient the fixedmatch.bet closing line is at predicting match. That outcomes the market does a good job at factoring in home field advantage. However, that does not mean that inefficiencies will not appear occasionally for enterprising bettors.
How to analyse odds using accurate double fixed matches
Betting Resources already has many articles covering Expected Value, or EV, so let’s just summarise it briefly with an equation:
Expected Value = (Bookmaker’s odds / True odds) – 1
If the true odds are 2.00 and the bookmaker’s odds are 2.10, this means the EV is 0.05, or 5%. If the true odds are 4.00 and the bookmaker’s odds are 3.50, the expected value is -0.125, or -12.5%. Serious bettors are only interested if the expect value is greater than 0%, or when the bookmaker offers odds that are longer than the true odds.
Of course, knowing what the true odds are is another matter altogether. Sports betting is not like dice or roulette and the markets are complex systems, for which there are no simple algorithms that will tell you what the true outcome probabilities are. We have to estimate them via data modelling and perhaps a bit of intuition as well. The better your model, the closer your estimated probabilities will be to the true probabilities.
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FixedMatch.Bet model is a combination of their own data analysis and the market information they acquire about their customers’ models, meaning it’s one of the best at estimating true probabilities. Of course, it won’t always be right, but on average it’s surprisingly good. For example, about 50% of their prices of 2.00 (after you’ve removed their margin) win and 25% of their prices of 4.00 win.
Individually, it’s impossible to know which Accurate double fixed matches were closer to the true odds and which were not so close, but on average, the errors are broadly cancel out.
How to apply Accurate double fixed matches
As the closing odds before a soccer match starts contain more information about the match than the odds fixed matches betting when FixedMatch.Bet first published them, on average the closing odds are closer to the true odds than the initial ones.
We might propose that the amount by which the odds move provides a measure of how much Expected Value there was available in the initial odds. This is not to argue that the closing odds are always correct, nor that the initial odds are always incorrect.
Instead, this means that the ratio of the two can be used as a proxy measure of Expect Value, given that we can’t know what the true odds are. This can be formulated as follows:
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Expected Value = (First odds / Last odds) – 1
Naturally, sometimes both the initial odds and the closing odds will be shorter than the true odds fixed matches, sometimes they’ll both be longer, sometimes the initial odds will be longer than the true odds and the closing shorter, and sometimes the opposite will occur. However, on average the ratio of the two should give you a good idea of how much Expected Value existed in the initial odds.
With this assumption in mind, how much Expected Value exists in soccer betting markets fixed matches? For a sample of 158,092 soccer matches and 474,276 home-draw-away betting odds, I divided FixedMatch.Bet initial odds by their closing odds, having removed their margin from the closing odds, and subtracted one.
So, how many odds had Expected Value greater than 0%? The figure was 29.7%. That’s actually quite a surprise, as it means nearly a third of FixedMatch.Bet initial odds actually hold some Expected Value.
How meaningful is Accurate double fixed matches?
We might expect there to be more occurrences of low Expect Value (e.g. 2%) than high Expect Value (e.g. 20%). But how much more? I ranked the size of the expect value for each bet in ascending order, then calculate a cumulative percentage.
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For example, 29.7% of odds held EV greater than 0%, but this falls to 21.7% for EV greater than 2%. By the time we reach the threshold of 10%, only 6.6% of odds will hold such value on average, and at 20% it’s just 1.8%. This is how such a trend appears on a graph:
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Evidently, there is a lot of expect value to be found in the soccer match betting market. However, don’t expect a lot of big gifts. The availability of increasing EV falls exponentially, meaning the greater the expected value, the far less of it you will find, assuming you even know where to look.
Of course, the much bigger problem for bettors is knowing the Accurate double fixed matches is there in the first place. Using this proxy measure, you won’t know that it was there until FixedMatch.Bet have published their closing odds and by then, the initial odds have gone.
Nevertheless, if you do have a forecast model that works and can reasonably estimate the true odds, you now know that when FixedMatch.Bet publish their initial odds, there is (in theory) a lot of potential for making a substantial profit.
